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Monthly trade report - September 2024: Office of the Chief Economist

Highlights

• After a weak performance in August, Canada’s exports of goods and services showed positive signs in September, growing 0.2%, while imports fell 0.3%.
• Export growth was driven by services, which expanded 1.6% overall. Meanwhile, goods exports dropped 0.1%, affected mainly by decreased exports of metal and non-metallic minerals (-5.4%).
• The overall import decrease can be attributed to goods imports, which fell 0.4%, largely due to metal and non-metallic minerals (-12.7%). Meanwhile, service imports grew 0.3% due to higher commercial services (1.2%).
• Goods trade with the U.S. grew in September, with exports up 1.6% and imports up 0.8%. In contrast, trade outside the U.S. contracted, with exports falling 5.3% and imports declining 2.3%.
• Excluding price effects, the volume of goods exports edged up 1.4%, and imports were essentially unchanged.

Table 1: Canada’s trade performance

Figure 1: Canada’s monthly trade performance

Industry view - exports

Export decreases were observed in 5 out of 11 product sections with metal and non-metallic minerals accounting for the largest total decrease (-5.4%), mainly attributed to lower exports of unwrought gold, silver, platinum metals, and their alloys (-15.4%). Lower exports of gold to the United Kingdom and gold transfers to the U.S. were behind the decline.

Exports of energy products fell 2.6% mainly due to lower crude oil prices. Meanwhile, exports of aircraft and other transportation equipment increased 10.3%, with aircraft exports leading the increase as September saw increased shipments of private jets to the U.S.

Export increases were seen in all 4 service sectors in September, growing 1.6% overall. Higher commercial service exports (1.9%) lead the increase while both transportation services (1.0%) and travel services (1.0%) also increased in September.

Figure 2: Exports by industry and sector

Industry view - imports

Imports fell in 8 out of 11 product sections and grew in 3 out of 4 service sectors.

The decrease in total goods imports was mainly driven by metal and non-metallic mineral products (-12.7%), particularly unwrought gold, silver, and platinum metals (-46.4%). Fewer imports of unwrought gold from the United Kingdom and Switzerland were observed in September.

Imports of energy products (+13.6%) partially offset the monthly decline in good imports. In particular, imports of refined petroleum energy products grew 18.7%. Imports within the “special transactions” category doubled from August due to the implementation of CBSA’s Assessment and Revenue Management initiative and may be revised in the future.

Services imports were up 0.3%, with commercial services growing 1.2% due to higher financial services payments. On the other hand, transportation services decreased 2.9% in September.

Figure 3: Imports by industry and sector

Global markets

Goods exports to the U.S. increased 1.6% in September due to higher aircraft and unwrought gold exports, while imports also grew 0.8%. This resulted in Canada’s trade surplus with the U.S. to widen from $7.8 billion in August to $8.3 billion in September.

Exports to countries other than the U.S. fell 5.3% in September. This decrease was largely due to lower exports to the United Kingdom (gold), as well as Switzerland.

Imports from countries other than the U.S. also fell in September by 2.3%. Lower imports from Switzerland (unwrought gold) and the Netherlands (passenger cars and light trucks) drove this decrease.

As a result of these changes, Canada’s trade deficit with countries other than the U.S. widened from $9.3 billion in August to $9.6 billion in September.

Figure 4: Goods trade by main markets

Prices and volumes

The drop in the monthly value of goods exports was driven by a 1.6% decrease in prices, as volumes rose 1.4%. However, the significant drop in metal and non-metallic mineral products exports was due to a notable decline in volumes (-3.5%), adding to a price decrease of 1.9%.

The decrease in goods imports was due to a 0.5% decrease in prices, while volumes grew 0.1% from August. That said, the biggest driver of the increased volumes was due to the “special transactions” category – a placeholder category with estimated values put in place while the Canada Border Services Agency switches to a digital initiative and phased out the accounting declarations. These values may be significantly revised in subsequent releases.

The Canadian dollar appreciated in September, reaching 73.82 US cents, approaching levels last seen at the beginning of 2024.

The monthly price of Western Canada Select crude oil dropped in September to $US75.9 per barrel, the lowest price since January 2024.

Figure 5: Goods trade

Figure 6: Exchange rate & oil prices

What to watch

• Today’s U.S. elections could have an important impact on the direction of Canada’s largest trade partner.
• Real GDP in Canada shrunk 0.2% (annualized) in August 2024, even as 12 sectors out of 20 expanded. An advance estimate by Statistics Canada suggests that the Canadian economy grew 1% (annualized) in Q3 2024.
• Brent crude fell US$4 per barrel after Israel’s strike on Iran, signaling limited market concerns over further escalation. Oxford Economics expects oil prices to remain steady through next year.
• Consumer appetites for AI-enabled devices have driven Asian electronics exports this year, especially from South Korea and Taiwan. However, recent trade data indicates that, while chip export values remain strong, export volumes are beginning to decline—suggesting the chips cycle may be nearing its peak in Asia.
• Following larger-than-expected rate cuts by China's central bank in late September, various Chinese ministries announced measures to stabilize the property market (including support for developers, mortgage relief, and relaxed purchase restrictions) to address downside risks. The Ministry of Finance has also indicated that coordination between fiscal and monetary policy is likely in the coming months.

Table 2: Trade by industry sector

Table 3: Goods trade by main markets