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Minister of Export Promotion, International Trade and Economic Development appearance before the Standing Committee on International Trade (CIIT) on the 2026 CUSMA Review

June 13, 2024
Published: September 26, 2024

Table of contents

Meeting scenario

Committee context

Relevant motion

On Tuesday, October 17, 2023, it was agreed, “That, pursuant to Standing Order 108(2), the committee undertake a study on the pending CUSMA review that will take place in 2026 in order to help identify any trade irritants that currently exist between Canada, the US and Mexico that could potentially create issues in advance of the review process if not addressed before it takes place, and possible solutions to such irritants; that the committee invite the Minister of International Trade and any other Government officials and experts the committee deems relevant; that the committee hold a minimum of 5 meetings; and that the committee report its findings and recommendations to the House.”

Committee membership & interests

Most recently, in 2023-2024, the committee has been concerned with the following topics of study:

Committee members' questions during previous committee meetings have focused on the following issues:

MINT opening remarks for CIIT Study on 2026 CUSMA Review (5 minutes)

Introduction

Thank you, Madam Chair. Good afternoon to you, the vice-chairs and all members of the committee.

I want to start by acknowledging that I’m speaking to you from the traditional and unceded territory of the Algonquin Anishinaabe people.

Thank you to the Standing Committee on International Trade for inviting me to provide an update to you and to Canadians on the government’s work regarding the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement – CUSMA.

As Minister of Export Promotion, International Trade and Economic Development, I work to increase Canada’s access to markets around the world, from Europe, to the Americas to the Indo-Pacific region and beyond. However, no relationship is more important than the one we share with our neighbours, the United States and Mexico.

Longstanding Canada-U.S. trade relations

Canada and the United States share deep economic ties as part of a multifaceted and longstanding relationship.

Since 1988, when we signed the historic Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, trade and investment grounded in predictable and enforceable rules between our countries has supported millions of jobs and helped ensure the secure flow of goods and people across the border. This relationship is vital to both countries’ economic competitiveness and prosperity.

This is why the government deployed the Team Canada engagement strategy this year – and we’ve been speaking with business here in Canada, and in the United States, to reinforce the value that our trade Agreement brings to them.

Deepening North American trade relations

After Mexico joined our trading partnership and the North American Free Trade Agreement came into effect in 1994, we've focused on increasing trade, integrating our supply chains, and bolstering commercial competitiveness in our continent.

Today, CUSMA, which in 2020 modernized and replaced the NAFTA, continues to safeguard Canada’s preferential access to the United States and Mexico and drive theintegration of our North American market – which represents 506 million consumers and a combined GDP of $42 trillion!

And CUSMA brings significant economic benefit to all three countries. In 2023, the total value of trilateral merchandise trade between Canada, the United States, and Mexico was almost $2 trillion [$1.93 trillion] – an increase from the year before [increase of 3.5% from 2022]!

CUSMA also provides certainty for business and investment in North America – which is becoming increasingly important in the face of global uncertainty and emerging threats to our region’s economic growth and prosperity.

CUSMA is a high-standard agreement and should remain so

On May 22, I joined U.S. Trade Representative, Katherine Tai, and Mexican Secretary of Economy, Raquel Buenrostro, in Phoenix Arizona, for the fourth CUSMA Free Trade Commission meeting.

We agreed CUSMA is a high-standard, high-ambition agreement that promotes the rights of our workers, advances our environmental priorities, and creates new opportunities for our producers.

And it was clear that implementation of the Agreement is proceeding well, especially where trilateral cooperation is strong. We took stock of the work being done by the CUSMA committees, and we provided them with guidance towards fully implementing CUSMA.

We acknowledged the need to ensure CUSMA remains up-to-date and able to adapt to the changing economic landscape, following global challenges posed by the COVID-19

pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and other threats to North America’s economic growth. To address emerging challenges, we agreed to jointly expand our collaboration on issues related to non-market policies and practices of other countries that undermine CUSMA, including in the automotive and other sectors.

We also agreed to continue to strengthen trilateral cooperation, including by promoting the integration of SMEs into regional and global supply chains, bolstering North American competitiveness and increasing opportunities for North American workers.

Looking forward, we reinforced the need for high environmental and labour standards, and to prioritize inclusive approaches in pursuit of trade and environmental objectives and to cooperate to combat forced labour and other forms of labour exploitation. We also agreed to strengthen preparedness to address emergency situations.

CUSMA going forward and Canada’s approach

To ensure that CUSMA remains a gold-standard agreement well suited to the demands of supporting North American competitiveness in a challenging world, the Agreement contains a requirement to regularly review its operation. The first joint review, scheduled to begin in 2026, affords the Parties the opportunity to take stock of CUSMA’s operation to ensure the Agreement remains current.

Canada will continue to advocate for a joint review process that is not a renegotiation but rather a focused checkpoint to ensure CUSMA remains relevant and continues to strengthen our region’s competitiveness and resilience – while continuing to serve Canada’s best interests.

We fully recognize that our partners may want to revisit some areas of CUSMA, including to address concerns about the non-market practices of other countries. We also understand that there may be frustrations on the part of the United States or Mexico with dispute settlement findings that were not in their favour. But this is how impartial dispute settlement is meant to operate.

Canada fought hard to retain the dispute settlement provisions when CUSMA was negotiated. Dispute settlement is an integral part of CUSMA. Only six dispute settlement cases have been initiated and three have been effectively resolved already, demonstrating that CUSMA is robust and functions as intended. It is also a key tool in our longstanding legal challenges with the United States on softwood lumber.

We will continue safeguarding Canada’s best interests in the coming years, and we will be prepared to defend the negotiated outcomes in CUSMA that work in Canada’s favour. We will also remain open to strategic discussions with our partners about addressing emerging issues and to ensure the Agreement continues to meet the needs of Canadians going forward.

In 2025, Canada will chair the fifth meeting of the CUSMA Free Trade Commission, which oversees the ongoing implementation and functioning of the Agreement. In 2025, this work will also include reviews of the Environment and Labour chapters and will set the stage for the joint review in 2026.

To prepare for these discussions, ¶¶ÒùÊÓƵ is working to launch public consultations this summer. We are interested in hearing Canadians’ views and experiences on key areas in CUSMA that are working well and potential areas for improvement. Feedback we receive will inform Canada’s priorities for 2025 and our preparations for the joint review in 2026.

Conclusion

Thank you. I'm happy to take questions, Madam Chair.

Standing Committee on International Trade (CIIT)

Mandate:

The House of Commons Standing Committee on International Trade studies and reports on matters referred to it by the House of Commons. The Committee can also initiate studies of subjects falling within its mandate. As a permanent committee established by the House of Commons Standing Orders, the Committee may be asked to comment on legislation, departmental activities and spending, and other matters under its jurisdiction. The Compendium of the House of Commons Procedure contains additional information on the mandate and powers of standing committees.

The general subject area of the Committee includes the following:

The federal departments and agencies under the Committee’s direct scrutiny are:

Hon. Judy A. Sgro

Chair
(LPC — Humber River-Black Creek, ON)

Hon. Judy A. Sgro

Election to the house of commons

First elected: 1999
Re-elected: 2000, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2021

Professional background

Municipal politics: north york city council (1987 – 1994); toronto city council (1994 –1999); at the municipal level, sgro focused on poverty and crime reduction.

Political and parliamentary roles

Committee membership

Recent points of interest to GAC

Canada-U.S. relationship:

Ukraine:

Taiwan:

Human rights: Iran, Russia

Kyle Seeback

Critic for international trade
(CPC – Dufferin – Caledon, ON)

Kyle Seeback

Election to the house of commons

First elected: 2011
Re-elected: 2019 and 2021

Professional background

Studies: bachelor of laws degree
Law background: associate lawyer at speigel nichols fox llp (2000-2022); associate lawyer at simmons da silva & sinton llp (2001-2012); seeback mediation (2019)

Political and parliamentary roles

Committee membership

Points related to CUSMA

Article 23.6: forced or compulsory labour

Carbon tax and carbon pricing (energy security):

Softwood lumber:

Recent points of interest to GAC

Bill c-282, an act to amend the department of foreign affairs, trade and development act (supply management):

Canada-Ecuador FTA:

During a ciit meeting on february 29th, 2024, mp seeback was critical of pursuing a free trade agreement with ecuador, stating that it would not benefit canada`s gdp. He suggested that the government should instead use its trade resources to resolve long-standing issues with sanitary and phytosanitary matters with the european union and the united kingdom.

Canada's businesses in supply chains and global markets:

Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay

Critic for international trade; international trade, aerospace and cars
(BQ — Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot, QC)

Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay

Election to the house of commons

First elected: 2019
Re-elected: 2021

Professional background

Studies: bachelor’s degree in political sciences, a master’s degree in sociology, and a phd in sociology and development
Columnist: columnist at radio vm (2015 – 2019); columnist at le mag (2017 – 2019); columnist at cogéco 106,9 fm mauricie (2016 – 2019); columnist at la vie agricole (2017 – 2019)
Blogger: blogger at le journal de montréal (2016 – 2019)

Political and parliamentary roles

Committee membership

Points related to CUSMA

Softwood lumber:

Recent points of interest to GAC

Cptpp: Taiwan

Investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS):

Aerospace industry:

Mining abroad:

Chandra Arya

(LPC — Nepean, ON)

Chandra Arya

Election to the house of commons

First elected: 2015
Re-elected: 2019 and 2021

Professional background

Studies: bachelor’s degree in engineering and a master’s in business administration. Technology: was an executive in the high-technology sector before entering politics. Business: served on the board of invest ottawa and as chair of the indo-canada ottawa business chamber.

Non-profit: served on the unity non-profit housing corporation ottawa board and as vice president of the ottawa community immigrants services organization.

Political and parliamentary roles

Committee membership

Points related to CUSMA:

Bill c-282, an act to amend the department of foreign affairs, trade and development act (supply management):

Recent points of interest to GAC

Canada-Ecuador FTA:

Canadian businesses in supply chains and global markets

Tony Baldinelli

Critic for tourism
(CPC — Niagara Falls, ON)

Tony Baldinelli

Election to the house of commons

First elected: 2019
Re-elected: 2021

Professional background

Consultant: senior consultant at hill & knowlton (1997 – 2001)
Communication: communications manager at the niagara parks commission (2001 – 2019)

Political and parliamentary roles

Committee membership

Points related to CUSMA:

Bill c-282, an act to amend the department of foreign affairs, trade and development act (supply management):

Auto rules of origin:

Recent points of interest to GAC:

Canada-ecuador FTA:

Carbon tax provisions:

Richard Cannings

Critic for emergency preparedness (climate change resilience); small business and tourism; international trade
(NDP — South Okanagan-West Kootenay, BC)

Deputy critic: innovation, science, and industry; natural resources

Richard Cannings

Election to the house of commons

First elected: 2015
Re-elected: 2019 and 2021

Professional background

Studies: master`s degree in zoology from memorial university of newfoundland

Biologist: 17 years as a professor at the university of british columbia, consulting biologist including work for the non-profit bird studies canada, 8 years as co-chair on the committee on the status of endangered wildlife in canada as, 11 years on b.c. environmental appeal board and five on the b.c. forest appeals commission, from 2006 to 2015 he was a board member of the nature conservancy of canada, and authored or contribute to numerous books.

Political and parliamentary roles

Committee membership

Recent points of interest to GAC

Canada-US relations:

Investor-state dispute resolution (ISDS):

Bill c-57: an act to implement the 2023 free trade agreement between canada and ukraine

Critical minerals and the ecosystem:

Mona Fortier

(LPC — Ottawa - Vanier, ON)</p<

Mona Fortier

Election to the house of commons

First elected: 2017
Re-elected: 2019 and 2021

Professional background

Studies: bachelor's degree in sociology and a master’s degree in business administration management/business: senior director, communications and market development at college la cité (2011 - 2015); senior director, strategic marketing at college la cité (2008 – 2011); executive director at equinox inc. (2005 - 2008)
Public affairs: vice-president at solugik public affairs (2002 - 2005); project manager nba communications (1993 - 2002)

Political and parliamentary roles

Committee membership

Recent points of interest to GAC

Climate change:

In response to a question during a question period in february 2023, mona fortier, who was president of the treasury board at the time, reiterated that canada was demonstrating global leadership on climate change by joining the net-zero government initiative and committing to achieve net-zero emissions from government operations by 2050.

Ukraine: military support, financial assistance to ukrainians in Canada

Matt Jeneroux

(CPC — Cypress Hills-Grassands, SK) critic for supply chain issues

Matt Jeneroux

Election to the house of commons

First elected: 2015
Re-elected: 2019 and 2021 

Professional background

Studies: bachelor of arts from the university of alberta
Provincial politics: mp of the progressive conservative party at the legislative assembly of alberta (2012 – 2015)
Public service: advisor, strategic policy and planning at health canada (2008 – 2012) mental health: founder of the hi dad foundation to raise awareness for the importance of men’s mental health for families (2022 – present)

Political and parliamentary roles

Committee membership

Recent points of interest to GAC

Supply chains:

Asia-pacific region: humanitarian projects

Support for ukrainians in Canada:

Richard Martel

(CPC — Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC) critic for sport;

Economic development agency of Canada for the regions of Quebec

Richard Martel

Election to the house of commons

First elected: 2018
Re-elected: 2019 and 2021

Professional background

Hockey: served as head coach in the quebec major junior hockey league (qmjhl) (1993 – 2017)

Political and parliamentary roles

Committee membership

Points related to CUSMA:

Softwood lumber:

Recent points of interest to GAC

Canada – U.S. trade relations:

Dairy industry:

Taiwan:

Foreign direct investment:

Critical metals:

Aluminum:

Wilson Miao

(LPC — Richmond Centre, BC)

Wilson Miao

Election to the house of commons

First elected: 2021

Professional background

Studies: bachelor’s degree in business administration and international business business: closing sales coordinator at polygon homes ltd. (2014 – 2016); director of communications & marketing at richmond sentinel (2018 – 2021); investment advisor hoovest financial inc. (2021 – present)
Health: opulence global partner lifestyle advisor at opulence global (2011 – present)

Committee membership

Points related to CUSMA:

Softwood lumber:

Recent points of interest to GAC

Trade diversification:

Small and medium businesses:

Investments to achieve net zero:

Philippines:

Asean FTA:

Terry Sheehan

(LPC — Sault Ste. Marie, ON)

Terry Sheehan

Election to the house of commons

First elected: 2015
Re-elected: 2019 and 2021

Professional background

Private & public sectors: prior to entering politics, mp sheehan had a career in the private and public sectors in business, community, and economic development.

Consultant: his last position prior to being elected as a member of parliament was as an employment and training consultant for the ontario ministry of training, colleges, and universities

Political and parliamentary roles

Interparliamentary group (2017 – 2020); canada-ireland interparliamentary group (2016 – 2020); canada- israel interparliamentary group (2016)

Committee membership

Recent points of interest to GAC

Steel industry:

Electric vehicles:

Clean tech:

Environment & gender equality:

Softwood lumber: US duty rate

Maninder Sidhu

parliamentary secretary to the minister of International trade, export promotion, small business and economic development 
(LPC — Parkdale-High park, ON)

Maninder Sidhu

Election to the house of commons

First elected: 2019
Re-elected: 2021

Professional background

International trade: international trade specialist, independent (2007 - 2019)

Political and parliamentary roles

Committee membership

Recent points of interest to GAC

Softwood lumber:

During a take-note debate on april 8th, 2024, mp sidhu spoke about impartial international arbitrators consistently finding canada to be a fair and reliable trading partner in previous rounds of the softwood lumber dispute. He voiced his support for the federal government's approach to the softwood lumber dispute.

Canada-Africa trade relations:

During question period on march 22nd, 2024, mp sidhu updated the house on his attendance at the canada- africa business conference. He reaffirmed the value of export diversification and growing trade across africa for canadian businesses.

Canada-Ecuador free trade agreement:

Indo-Pacific:

Trade infrastructure:

India:

Afghanistan: humanitarian crisis

Women and girls global rights: canada's feminist foreign policy

CUSMA implementation

Supplementary messages

Update

You just participated in the fourth Free Trade Commission (FTC) in Arizona and met with USTR Katherine Tai, and Mexican Secretary for the Economy Raquel Buenrostro. In addition to the bilateral discussions and reviewing the ongoing work of CUSMA committees, you engaged in in-depth discussions on North American Competitiveness, inclusive trade and the environment, CUSMA labour obligations and forced labour, and met with labour stakeholders and local Indigenous Peoples. You and your counterparts also signed an addendum to FTC Decision No. 5 to adopt Procedures developed by the Competitiveness Sub-Committee on trade flows in emergency situations.

Supporting facts

Background

Since CUSMA entered into force on July 1, 2020, the Parties have focused on the implementation of the Agreement. Canada is on track to meet all of its commitments in the agreed-upon timelines, and, along with the U.S., continues to encourage Mexico to do the same, particularly on the new obligations it has taken with regards to labour.

There have been six state-to-state dispute settlement cases initiated under the CUSMA, three of which remain in progress: the U.S.’ interpretation of the rules of origin for core parts in the automotive sector (panel decisions adopted but has yet to be implemented by the U.S.); Mexico’s measures concerning genetically engineered products; and Mexico’s measures in the electricity sector. The closed cases are on solar products and dairy tariff rate quotas (2 cases). There are also various softwood lumber related cases that Canada is advancing through the binational panel process under both Chapter 10 (Trade Remedies) of the CUSMA and Chapter 19 (Review and Dispute Settlement in Antidumping/Countervailing Duty Matters) of the NAFTA. The CUSMA FTC is the main Ministerial body responsible for overseeing the implementation and overall operation of the Agreement, including the CUSMA Secretariat and the 25 trilateral subsidiary bodies.

CUSMA 2026 joint review

Supplementary messages

Responsive

Supporting facts and figures

Background

Article 34.7 (Review and Term Extension) is designed to ensure that the CUSMA Parties have an opportunity, starting in 2026, to review the operation of the Agreement, review recommendations submitted by a Party, and trilaterally decide on any appropriate actions. Parties are also given the opportunity to confirm whether they wish to extend the term of the Agreement for a new 16-year period.

While the obligation is to review – and not necessarily renegotiate – the Agreement, Canada should not assume that either the United States or Mexico will agree to extend CUSMA in 2026 and is closely watching discussions on CUSMA during the ongoing 2024 election campaign in the United States.

USTR officials have, in recent public statements, set out a broad perspective on the review – noting that it could cover issues such as the challenges posed by China, including related to autos and electric vehicles, as well as their concerns with the dispute settlement functions of the CUSMA.

Mexico’s starting position regarding the review appears to be well aligned with Canada’s in seeking to keep the review as narrow and targeted as possible, though they have expressed openness to taking on new issues, such as rules for zero- emission vehicles, that were not prominent when the CUSMA was first negotiated.

Canada’s preferred scenario would be to extend the term of the Agreement as soon as possible in order to demonstrate the Parties’ commitment and provide greater certainty and predictability to businesses and the investment community. Canada can also use the review to seek to advance our shared interests in furthering North American economic integration.

Canadian officials are preparing for a range of potential scenarios for the 2026 joint review. As part of these preparatory efforts, officials are informally consulting domestic partners (e.g. provincial and territorial trade representatives) and targeted stakeholders (e.g. businesses and business associations) to seek their input in advance of broader formal consultations to be launched in summer 2024. These

consultations will inform the development of Canada’s position and help to ensure that Canada is able to advance proposals with respect to both its offensive and defensive interests, as needed.

Inclusive Trade under CUSMA and SMEs

Supplementary messages

Update

Supporting facts and figures

Background

CUSMA includes gender-responsive provisions in the preamble as well as in the labour, investment, and SME chapters, including provisions promoting women-led SMEs, removing barriers to the full participation of women in the workforce, and aimed at ensuring that women benefit from the opportunities and benefits created by the Agreement.

The Parties agreed to provisions which were designed to increase Indigenous Peoples’ participation and access to opportunities created by the Agreement, in chapters such as SMEs. CUSMA was the first FTA for Canada to incorporate a general exception that confirms that the government can adopt or maintain measures it deems necessary to fulfill its legal obligations to Indigenous Peoples. The provision also specifically references Aboriginal rights as recognized and affirmed by section 35 of the Constitution Act, as well as those set out in self-government agreements.

CUSMA’s stand-alone SME chapter is designed to foster cooperation amongst the Parties to increase trade and investment opportunities for SMEs. The Chapter’s provisions ensure that information is available to SMEs. The Chapter establishes an SME Committee to organize inclusive trade-related initiatives and to convene an annual trilateral SME Dialogue to engage private sector stakeholders on issues of relevance to SMEs. Canada has 30 SME Counsellors representing 17 organizations, of which 8 specifically serve women, Indigenous Peoples, or other minority groups.

Canada’s SME Counsellors include the Canadian Council for Aboriginal Business, the Organization of Women in International Trade, and the Canada’s 2SLGBTQI+ Chamber of Commerce.

Labour including the Rapid Response Mechanism

Supplementary messages

Supporting facts and figures

Background

The CUSMA Labour Council last met in June 2023, in Mexico, and is due to meet again in 2025. The Labour Chapter includes a review clause requiring that, during the fifth year after the date of entry into force of the Agreement (2025), the Labour Council review the operation and effectiveness of the chapter.

The CUSMA commits Mexico to implement several changes in its legal framework consistent with Mexico’s labour reform initiated in 2019, which is based on independent and impartial labour justice, democratic trade unions, and authentic collective bargaining.

The RRLMs between Canada and Mexico and between the United States and Mexico are designed to make CUSMA labour obligations enforceable and address specific labour violations related to collective bargaining and freedom of association. The RRLM is consistently highlighted by the United States as a cornerstone of CUSMA, and a model for its approach to workers’ rights.

During the FTC meeting in May, the Parties discussed ways to enhance coordination of efforts to address forced labour and Mexico suggested that a “trilateral forced labour enforcement strategy” could be discussed during the upcoming CUSMA review.

Enforcement of Canada’s import ban on goods made using forced labour has faced growing criticism from U.S. legislators, who have called Canada and Mexico “back doors” for forced labour goods to enter the U.S. market, and ‘dumping grounds’ for forced labour goods turned away at the U.S. border. U.S. officials have questioned whether Canada has invested sufficient resources in its efforts to address forced labour. Budget 2024 includes commitments to further work on due diligence to eradicate forced labour from supply chains.

Environment

Supplementary messages

Responsive – Carbon Pricing

Background

CUSMA Automotive Rules of Origin

Supplementary messages

If asked if Canada believes the CUSMA rules of origin need to be changed.

If asked if Canada will exercise its right to retaliate against the U.S. if they continue to not comply?

If asked about using rules of origin to address issues outside preferential tariff treatment.

Background

To date no Canadian stakeholders have requested changes to the rules of origin for automotive goods as part of the six-year review. A difference of interpretation has arisen between the CUSMA Parties in relation to the implementation of the regional value content (RVC) requirements for core parts used in the production of vehicles. A CUSMA Chapter 31 dispute panel found in Canada and Mexico’s favour in January 2023, ruling that the United States was incorrectly administering a ruling related to the automotive rules of origin for core parts used in the production of vehicles. Resolution discussions amongst the Parties are ongoing.

Electric Vehicles (EVs)

Supplementary messages

If asked whether Canada will impose tariffs/take action on Chinese EVs

If asked about the potential for Canada to be a ‘back-door’ for Chinese EVs into the U.S.

If asked about surging EV imports from China

If asked about the U.S. Department of Commerce’s investigation into national security concerns related to connected vehicles

If asked about the ongoing EU investigation into Chinese EVs

Background

Driven in large part by state intervention including heavy subsidization, Chinese automakers have significantly expanded production, leading to growing overcapacity and causing Chinese automakers to aggressively pursue export markets, particularly for EVs. Additionally, Chinese automakers, notably BYD, have recently announced plans to establish assembly plants abroad, including in Mexico.

Between 2020 and 2023, China’s global exports of light passenger vehicles of all engine types increased by 751%, from C$12 billion to C$102 billion. However, EV exports increased by 2,200%, from C$2 billion to C$46 billion.

In response to a surge in imports from China, in October 2023 the EU Commission self-initiated a countervailing duty (CVD) investigation into imports of EVs from

China.The investigation will attempt to determine the extent to which EVs exported from China benefit from subsidies and cause, or threaten to cause, economic injury to EU producers. The EU is expected to reach a preliminary determination by July 4, 2024, but certain parties to the process may receive the results of the preliminary determination in early June 2024. Duties could be applied following the preliminary determination as the investigating authority works towards a final determination, expected in November.

The U.S. has adopted measures to restrict imports of Chinese EVs, including a Section 301 tariff of 25% on vehicles imported from China in place since 2018, and restrictions on eligibility for the US$7,500 Clean Vehicle Credit (CVC), a tax credit to consumers who purchase an eligible vehicle. China has retaliated on the Section 301 tariffs and has initiated WTO disputes against the United States on both the Section 301 tariffs and the CVC. On May 14, 2024, the U.S. announced that it will increase Section 301 tariffs on US$18 billion worth of imports from China in “strategic sectors”, including EVs (to 100%) and EV batteries (to 25% from 7.5%). The higher tariffs on EVs and EV batteries will enter into force on August 1, 2024.

Additionally, the U.S. Department of Commerce is undertaking an investigation into national security concerns related to the collection of sensitive data by connected vehicles from countries of concern including China.

Canada’s policies do not discriminate against Chinese EVs, which are subject to Canada’s MFN tariff of 6.1% and may be eligible for purchase incentives of up to C$5,000 through the Incentives for Zero-Emission Vehicles Program (iZEV).

In 2023, Canada imported C$2.2 billion in EVs from China. In comparison, the U.S. imported C$448 million in EVs from China, while Mexico imported C$347 million.

Canadian automotive stakeholders have expressed concerns about the potential future influx of Chinese EVs, as well as Chinese automotive investment in Mexico.

During the fourth meeting of the CUSMA Free Trade Commission on May 22, 2024, Ministers agreed to jointly expand their collaboration on issues related to non-market policies and practices of other countries which undermine the Agreement and harm U.S., Canadian, and Mexican workers, including in the automotive and other sectors.

For additional information on the recent U.S. Section 301 announcements, see separate briefing note: Recent U.S. Announcements on Section 301 Tariffs on Imports from China.

North American competitiveness

Update

The CUSMA Competitiveness Committee continues to advance implementation of the CUSMA Free Trade Commission (FTC) Decision No. 5 on Coordination and Consultation of North American Trade Flows in Emergency Situations. During the last FTC held in Phoenix, Arizona, May 21-22, 2024, you, alongside Ambassador Tai and Secretary Buenrostro agreed and signed an Addendum to Decision No. 5, which outlines trilateral procedures the Parties would follow in an emergency situation impacting trade flows.

Background

CUSMA Competitiveness Committee

The Competitiveness Committee, established under Article 26.2, seeks to promote further economic integration and enhance the competitiveness of North American exports. Its mandate is to discuss and develop cooperative activities in support of a strong economic environment that incentivizes production in North America, facilitates regional trade and investment, enhances a predictable and transparent regulatory environment, encourages the swift movement of goods and the provision of services throughout the region, and responds to market developments and emerging technologies. The Committee has met 10 times in person since its inception.

Implementation of FTC Decision No. 5 - Coordination and Consultation on North American Trade Flows in Emergency Situations

The Parties continue to work on the implementation of FTC Decision No. 5 and to date have accomplished the following: the Sub-Committee on emergency response has been established and first met March 2023. The Sub-Committee has met several times over the year, including in-person in Mexico City in March 2024.The Parties shared their domestic procedures related to consulting during an emergency response in summer 2023. They have recently been updated, with both Canada and the United States publishing its procedures online in May 2024. The Committee has also developed Procedures for Coordinating and Consulting in Response to Specific Emergency Situations, which Ministers endorsed at the CUSMA FTC meeting in Phoenix, Arizona, May 21-22, 2024.

Improving North America’s Investment Attraction Competitiveness

This workstream aims to enhance North America’s continental competitiveness, building on each party’s open and transparent investment environments and strengthen economic growth and competitiveness through information and best practice sharing to attract investment.

Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement Competitiveness Committee Workforce Development

The Committee has collaborated on workforce development efforts since December 2021. In May 2023, the U.S. hosted a forum on regional workforce development in Huntsville, Alabama, to discuss workforce development best practices and ways to address skills gaps. Canada hosted a workforce development event in October 2022 in Winnipeg, Manitoba that addressed opportunities for women, Indigenous peoples, youth, and other underrepresented groups in clean technology, renewable energy, and sustainable transportation sectors. The United States has advised they will likely host an event this fall.

Canada – Mexico trade irritants

Supplementary messages

Mexico’s New Law for an Adequate and Sustainable Diet:

Energy:

Mining:

Biotech Dispute Settlement Case:

Steel and Aluminum:

Background

Mexico’s New Law for an Adequate and Sustainable Diet: This law entered into force on April 18, 2024, and the Mexican government has 180 days to develop implementing regulations. The new law includes requirements to “advertise” food that contains GMOs, along with a 15% domestic content requirement for federal and state level procurements. Contrary to transparency provisions in CUSMA and the WTO, Mexico did not notify this law through the WTO. Canada has requested that Mexico notify its implementing regulations through the WTO to provide trading partners with an opportunity to submit comments for consideration. Officials will continue to analyze the law and implementing regulations, once received, for potential trade implications.

Energy: On January 31, Mexico’s Supreme Court ruled that the AMLO administration’s 2021 electricity sector reforms, which are the subject of Canada’s CUSMA dispute settlement consultations against Mexico, were unconstitutional. It upheld 6 injunctions (amparos) sought against the reforms by private sector investors and ruled that the original 2014 Electricity Industry Law (LIE) which opened the industry to private investment is the applicable legal framework governing the sector. Despite the ruling, Canadian renewable energy companies are likely to experience lingering effects from the 2021 reforms. [REDACTED]

Mining: In Spring 2023, a reform to several provisions of the Mining Law and other associated laws entered into force. After the Government of Canada and Canadian industry raised concerns, Economia established a consultation mechanism, though its establishment was delayed until January 2024. SEMARNAT officials (the Secretariat of Natural Resources and Environment) and associated agencies were unavailable, so the meetings were never held. It is unclear when the regulations will be published and permitting has therefore stalled. Industry is relying on an opposition-led constitutional challenge against the Mining Reform (Supreme Court’s decision expected in first half of 2024) and hundreds of legal injunctions launched against the Reform by the private sector. Several Canadian mining companies have proceeded with ISDS filings under CPTPP. Courts have reportedly been ruling in favour of business interests.

Biotech Dispute Settlement Case: On February 13, 2023, Mexico published a new Presidential Decree that further narrows the scope of its intent to restrict imports of genetically modified (GM) corn, preventing GM corn from being used in tortillas and tortilla dough, and phase out glyphosate imports by March 31, 2024. Technical consultations under the CUSMA SPS Chapter (March 2023) and formal dispute settlement consultations (June and August 2023) did not address U.S. concerns.

Consequently, the United States requested the establishment of a CUSMA dispute settlement panel, which was composed in October 2023. The dispute settlement proceedings are progressing as expected, and Canada continues to participate as a third Party.

Steel and Aluminum: Canada and U.S. industries are concerned with the potential for non-market and high-carbon steel and aluminum products to enter into North American supply chains through Mexico. The United States has been engaged in discussions with Mexico for several months, describing their efforts as consultations under the 2019 bilateral Joint Statement which led to the lifting of Section 232 duties. In April, Mexico announced measures aimed at strengthening its steel monitoring and import control requirements, including import monitoring, with a country of melt and pour component. Mexico further raised the applied tariffs on steel and aluminum products. U.S. stakeholders reportedly remain unsatisfied with Mexico’s efforts and continue to apply pressure towards the reapplication of Section 232 tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum from Mexico.

Canada – U.S. Trade Irritants

RESPONSIVE – Softwood Lumber (SWL)

If asked on Panel Composition:

RESPONSIVE – if asked on Dairy Market Access/Disciplines:

If asked on the ruling of the second CUSMA Panel:

If asked on the expected next steps from the United States on the issue of dairy:

RESPONSIVE – Buy America

RESPONSIVE – Steel & Aluminum

RESPONSIVE – Digital Services Tax (DST):

If pressed about potential U.S. retaliation:

RESPONSIVE – Online Streaming Act (Formerly Bill C-11):

RESPONSIVE – Online News Act (Formerly Bill C-18):

RESPONSIVE – Québec Bill 96:

If trademarks are raised:

If asked about the compliance of Quebec’s measures with CUSMA:

RESPONSIVE – Line 5

Background

Softwood Lumber (SWL) – Panel Composition: [REDACTED] However, over the past 18 months, Canada and the United States have established two NAFTA panels and two CUSMA panels. Officials are pressing USTR counterparts to maintain the recent pace of exchanges and to compose the next panels in line swiftly. On May 6, a NAFTA Chapter 19 panel released an initial decision identifying several problems with the final U.S. countervailing duty determination and remanding them back to the United States for reconsideration. Canadian industry is increasingly concerned by the continued imposition of duties, particularly due to the significant rate increases anticipated in the near term (as soon as this summer). [REDACTED]

Dairy Market Access/Disciplines: In 2021, the United States requested the establishment of a dispute settlement panel – referred as the first CUSMA dairy TRQs dispute. The Panel ruled that Canada’s use of processor-specific pools was inconsistent with its CUSMA obligations. To comply with the panel ruling, Canada adopted new policies, in 2022, that ended the use of the pooling system altogether. In 2023, the second CUSMA dairy TRQs dispute settlement panel found in Canada’s favour on all claims challenged by the United States. There is no appeal mechanism under CUSMA. The U.S. Administration, members of Congress and the dairy industry expressed disappointment with the second panel findings. While their next steps are unclear, it is expected that the U.S.

Administration will continue to push for changes to Canada’s dairy policies [REDACTED] and explore all avenues to address their concerns. CUSMA requires that Canada and the United States meet in 2025 to discuss specific non-TRQ related dairy disciplines (i.e., milk pricing and export thresholds) established under Article 3.A.3. The purpose of these discussions is to determine whether conditions have changed such that modifications or termination of the provisions are needed.

Buy America: On August 23, 2023, the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) released its final guidance on the Build America, Buy America Act (BABA) domestic content preferences that apply permanently to all infrastructure projects benefitting from federal financial assistance. Despite Canada’s advocacy efforts, the final guidance contains no carve-in or special accommodation for Canada, instead reiterating that there is an established waiver process to address concerns related to supply chains. As part of Canada’s advocacy efforts to influence the implementation of the expanded Buy America requirements in the BABA, Budget 2024 echoes the 2023 Fall Economic Statement indicating that Canada will consider reciprocity as a key design element in the development of new policies and reiterates the commitment to implement reciprocal procurement measures in the near term. [REDACTED]

Steel & Aluminum cooperation: The Canadian steel and aluminum industries are exported oriented and rely on continued and predictable market access to the United States. The steel industry in particular places significant emphasis on the importance of a strong trade remedy and import monitoring system as a means to demonstrate that Canada is a trusted and reliable partner. The United States has welcomed Canada’s recent announcements related to the collection of steel country of melt and pour information and the launch of public consultations on the collection of aluminum smelt and cast information. Both Canadian and U.S. steel and aluminum industries are concerned with the potential for unfairly traded steel and aluminum products to enter into North American supply chains through Mexico. The United States been engaged in discussions with Mexico, and the potential implications should the U.S. administration decide to reinstitute Section 232 tariffs on Mexico. Most recently, the United States. has announced its intention to increase Section 301 tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum from 7.5% to 25%. While the implications are unclear, in part due to the low level of trade the United States has with China on these products, it will be important to monitor any potential implications on imports into Canada.

Digital Services Tax (DST): 145 countries are working to finalize and sign by June 2024 a multilateral treaty to implement Pillar One of an OECD/G20 two-pillar tax reform. The treaty would reallocate taxing rights over large companies (including digital companies) toward market jurisdictions; in return, countries would remove national Digital Services Taxes (DSTs). Canada announced a DST in 2020 but agreed in 2021 to hold off for two years under a “standstill” on new DSTs, which expired at the end of 2023. Legislation to enact the DST is currently proceeding through Parliament (part of C-59).

Online Streaming Act (formerly Bill C-11): The Online Streaming Act received Royal Assent on April 27, 2023. The Act clarifies that an online audio or audio-visual service to “inform, enlighten or entertain” Canadians is subject to the Broadcasting Act, regardless of whether the content is streamed or accessed on demand. Canadian (e.g., Crave) and non-Canadian (e.g., Netflix, Spotify, DAZN) services could be required to contribute to the Canadian broadcasting system. U.S. stakeholders have raised concerns with Bill C-11 over broad authorities and discretion provided to the CRTC and that it could result in subsidisation of Canadian companies. Canada’s position is that neither the legislation nor forthcoming regulations will treat Canadian and foreign operators differently.

Online News Act (formerly Bill C-18): The Act, which entered into force on December 19, 2023, establishes a framework through which digital news intermediary (DNI) operators (e.g., Google, Facebook) and news businesses may enter into agreements respecting news content that is made available by DNIs. On December 15, 2023, PCH released its final regulations for the Act. The draft regulations were amended to facilitate an agreement with Google, whereby it will continue to share Canadian news online in return for annual payments to news companies in the range of $100 million. Meta continues to block access to news by Canadians on its platforms (i.e., Facebook, Instagram).

Quebec Bill 96: In June 2022, Quebec passed Bill 96 (An Act respecting French, the official and common language of Quebec), which modernizes Quebec’s Charter of the French language. A number of Canadian and U.S. stakeholders, as well as USTR, have raised concerns about Quebec Bill 96’s implications for the use of their trademarks in Quebec, alleging inconsistency with Canada’s intellectual property (IP) obligations under CUSMA. Bill 96, and Quebec’s January 2024 draft regulations, reinforce the use of French by requiring that any “generic” or “descriptive” term on a product or packaging be displayed in French, including where those terms are elements of a registered trademark. Canada’s view is that it remains fully compliant with all its CUSMA obligations on trademarks, which provide the rights holder with the exclusive right to prevent others from using the mark in Canada, but do not provide the trademark owner with a right to use the trademark.

Stakeholders have also raised concerns regarding the draft regulations which require the marking and labelling pertaining to the use of a product (i.e., not only related to safety) to be in French. [REDACTED] Quebec officials recently advised that the Ministry of the French Language has received a large number of submissions on its proposed regulations and is reviewing these comments as it finalizes the regulations.

Line 5:A cross-border pipeline, Line 5 carries light crude oil and natural gas liquids from western Canada to Ontario and Quebec, and the U.S. Midwest. Canada has twice invoked the dispute settlement mechanism of the 1977 Transit Pipelines Treaty, triggering formal, ongoing diplomatic negotiations over two sections of Line 5 located in Wisconsin and Michigan. Public authorities in these two states—the Bad River Band in Wisconsin and the State of Michigan—are attempting through court action to permanently shut down Line 5. This would deprive Canada access to its own energy, violate the terms of the Treaty and cause grave economic damage to both the Canadian and U.S. economies in the Great Lakes region. Canada supports infrastructure projects that represent solutions that would keep Line 5 running while at the same time responding to communities’ concerns in Wisconsin and Michigan, including Indigenous concerns.

Steel and aluminum

Supplementary messages

Recent U.S. announcement on increased Section 301 tariffs

Unfairly traded imports and potential trade remedy system improvements

Bilateral engagement with the U.S., including on carbon intensity

Background

U.S. tariffs: The U.S. maintains Section 232 tariffs or tariff rate quotas on most trading partners, with only a few exceptions including Canada, Mexico and Australia. Recent U.S. efforts towards reaching a Section 232 outcome with the EU in the context of the Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum discussions were unsuccessful, in part due to the pressure on the Biden Administration to maintain protections in an election year.

Most recently, the U.S. announced its intention to increase Section 301 tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum from China from 7.5% to 25%. The impacts on U.S. steel and aluminum trade are expected to be relatively minor, given the impacts of existing Section 232 and 301 measures, as well as anti-dumping and countervailing duties.

Canada’s trade remedy system: Significant measures have been taken in recent years to strengthen the remedy regime and respond to industry concerns. This includes legislative and regulatory amendments on anti-circumvention, particular market situation and massive importations. Additionally, Budget 2024 provided funding to establish a Market Watch Unit, aimed at addressing industry concerns that normal values (i.e. the minimum price a covered good can be sold at into Canada without paying a duty) are not updated regularly enough to provide adequate protection in a volatile market environment.

Bilateral engagement with the U.S.: Canada regularly engages with the U.S. on issues related to steel and aluminum trade. We also work together closely to address common trade challenges, including in the context of the North American Steel Trade Committee, OECD Steel Committee and the Global Forum on Excess Capacity.

Promoting trade in green steel and aluminum: Informed in part by efforts under the bilateral Energy Transformation Task Force, Canada and the United States are making significant investments to decarbonize energy-intensive industries and support jobs that strengthen North American manufacturing competitiveness. Both governments are also undertaking efforts to better understand the carbon intensity of their steel and aluminum sectors and considering how to further collaboration in this space.

Canada-U.S. energy security (and Line 5)

Supplementary messages (Line 5)

Supporting facts and figures

Background

The free flow of energy back and forth across the Canada-U.S. border is a pillar of the bilateral economic and trade relationship. This assures North American energy security in the present and a stable energy transition in the future. Canada’s energy exports to the U.S. drive overall bilateral trade balances, generating for Canada large year-on-year trade surpluses dominated by the export of crude oil in transboundary pipelines. The cross-border energy infrastructure grid (70+ pipelines and 35+ clean electricity transmission lines) supports mutual energy reliance, in effect an integrated two-way energy supply chain. The bilateral energy relationship plays a role in advancing the transition to a clean energy future, and our Energy Transformation Task Force (ETTF) aims to identify additional opportunities for bilateral cooperation in key areas like electric vehicle supply chains, critical minerals, and nuclear energy.

Canadian and U.S. goals for decarbonizing North American electricity production are aligned.

Line 5, a cross-border pipeline, carries light crude oil and natural gas liquids from western Canada to Ontario and Quebec, and the U.S. Midwest. Canada has twice invoked dispute settlement under the 1977 Transit Pipelines Treaty, triggering formal, ongoing diplomatic negotiations over two sections of Line 5 located in Wisconsin and Michigan. Public authorities in these two states—the Bad River Band in Wisconsin and the State of Michigan—are attempting through court action to permanently shut down Line 5. This would deprive Canada access to its own energy, violate the terms of the Treaty and cause grave economic damage to both the Canadian and U.S. economies in the Great Lakes region. Canada supports infrastructure projects that represent solutions that would keep Line 5 running while at the same time responding to communities’ concerns in Wisconsin and Michigan, including Indigenous concerns.

Investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS)

Supplementary messages

Supporting facts and figures

Background

Canada released its current model FIPA in 2021. It includes an updated and improved ISDS mechanism, reproduces elements from CETA and CPTPP and other innovations, and is in line with the Government’s inclusive trade agenda. It is also more accessible to SMEs.

Canada has traditionally included an ISDS mechanism in FIPAs and in investment chapters of FTAs. CUSMA is the first such treaty in which Canada is not subject to an ISDS mechanism. Under CUSMA, NAFTA’s ISDS mechanism remained available to investors with respect to their existing investments for three years (i.e. until July 1, 2023) pursuant to the legacy investment claims Annex (i.e. Annex 14-C). Following this 3-year transition period, investment disputes against Canadian measures or by Canadian investors under CUSMA can only be brought under the State-to-State dispute settlement mechanism.

Carbon border adjustments

Supplementary messages

Responsive: Domestic border carbon adjustment

Background

Border Carbon Adjustments: Carbon Tariffs

The EU is the first jurisdiction to implement a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which began operation on October 1, 2023.

The initial requirements under the CBAM are limited to reporting of emissions of certain imported goods (i.e. aluminum, fertilizers, electricity, hydrogen and iron and steel). The border fee will enter into force on January 1, 2026, and it will increase over- time as the free allowances under the EU’s carbon pricing system are phased out.

The EU is not the only jurisdiction implementing carbon measures; the UK will implement its CBAM by 2027; Australia is now considering different border policies, including carbon border adjustments; and Japan is considering implementing a carbon levy for fossil fuel importers starting on 2028/2029.

There are also several bills currently before the U.S. Congress, for example the Foreign Pollution Fee Act, that would impose a fee on carbon intensive imports based on the greenhouse gas intensity of the imported good. Although it is unlikely that any carbon fee bills will pass Congress before the November election, these approaches have growing bipartisan support.

In practice, these border measures are “carbon tariffs” since the fee applied at the border is based on the emission of the traded goods. The border fee will be on top of the “regular” tariff, and the existence of an FTA will not prevent the trading party from applying a “carbon tariff”.

International Cooperation

In April, the White House announced the creation of a Trade and Climate Task Force and presented a proposal at the WTO on the need for members to focus on trade- related climate measures, including the need for greater coherence and interoperability between different measures.

Canada is a partner who can constructively contribute to the work on trade-related climate measures, including the interoperability of methodologies and requirements. However, given different approaches by countries to climate policy (e.g., carbon price as a key tool vs. no carbon price), Canada will need to engage with all trading partners while seeking to minimize impact on our export interests.

Canada: Domestic Carbon Border Adjustment

Since the announcement in the 2020 Fall Economic Statement, Canadian officials have been exploring Border Carbon Adjustments. At this time, there is no direction on whether border carbon adjustments will be pursued in Canada.

Recent U.S. Announcements on Section 301 Tariffs on Imports from China

Supplementary messages

If asked whether Canada will impose similar tariffs on imports from China

If asked about the impact of U.S. Section 301 tariffs on Canada

If asked about the risk of diversion of Chinese goods

Background

On May 14, 2024, the U.S. government announced the results of an extensive review of its existing Section 301 tariffs on goods from China. The U.S. will raise tariffs on US$18 billion worth of imports from China in “strategic sectors”, including electric vehicles (EVs), batteries, solar panels, critical minerals, steel, aluminum, semiconductors, ship-to-shore cranes, and medical products. Most of the tariff increases are intended to take effect on August 1, 2024, with certain others to take effect on January 1, 2025 or January 1, 2026. This announcement followed the completion of a four-year statutory review of the Section 301 tariffs first imposed by former President Trump in 2018, which concluded that China had not eliminated many of its unfair technology-transfer related practices that triggered the original measures. The review also concluded the U.S. would maintain its current Section 301 tariffs, which apply to US$300 billion worth of imports from China.

The immediate impact of the new tariffs on U.S. imports from China is expected to be minimal in most sectors, as the U.S. does not import large volumes from China for most of the covered goods, in part because of the existing Section 301 tariffs (and Section 232 tariffs in the case of steel and aluminum).

Impact on Canada

As with the current U.S. Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods, the new U.S. Section 301 tariffs will apply only to goods produced in China. The tariffs do not directly affect goods that have been substantially transformed in Canada or third countries.

Higher U.S. tariffs increase the risk of the diversion of Chinese goods into other markets and could lead to increased U.S. concerns about the potential for transshipment via third countries. Notably, Canada has taken measures that will help prevent unfairly traded Chinese steel from being diverted to the Canadian market, including legislative and regulatory amendments to modernize and enhance the effectiveness of anti-circumvention measures and the trade remedy system, as well as increased funding to bolster trade investigations and enforcement. In addition, Canada has taken steps to begin collecting country of melt and pour information for imports of steel products into Canada, which will bring further transparency to the North American steel supply chain, a key interest for the U.S.

Stakeholder Views

The Canadian Steel Producers Association (CSPA) expressed support for the Section 301 tariffs and urged the Government of Canada to consider a “comparable tariff approach and evolve our trade tools”, specifically calling for the application of 25% surtaxes on imports of steel from China, as well as changes to Canada’s trade remedy system. The Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association (APMA) said “Canada has to” implement similar tariffs. The Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association (CVMA) is not advocating for Canada to specifically match the Section 301 tariffs, citing the risk of Chinese retaliation.

For additional information on issues related to EVs, steel and aluminum, see separate briefs on Electric Vehicles and Steel and Aluminum.

Team Canada Report Card

As of April 30, 2024

This report card captures some visits made prior to, in addition to the Canada-U.S. engagement efforts made since the launch of Team Canada by Prime Minister Trudeau on January 23, 2024.

States Visited (Including District of Columbia)

Provinces / Territories Visited

Co-Leads & Ministers / Parliamentary Secretaries Engaged

Number of Stakeholders Met

12 - Number of States Visited, Incl. DC

3 - Number of Provinces/Territories Visited

90 - Number of Meetings

22 - Number of Media Engagements

9 - Number of Co-Leads & Ministers / Parliamentary Secretaries Engaged

[REDACTED]

Top 3 Messages Delivered

Top 3 Takeaways

[REDACTED] Highlights of Media Coverage - April

Premier Visits Facilitated

Parliamentary Visits Facilitated

Look Ahead

United States commercial relations

Context

No two nations depend more on each other for their mutual prosperity and economic security than the United States and Canada.The U.S. has consistently remained Canada’s top trading partner, its largest source of foreign direct investment, and it is the first export market of choice for Canadian companies. In addition, Canada is the single largest foreign supplier of energy to the United States.

The 2021 Roadmap for a Renewed Canada-U.S. Partnership serves as a framework for the bilateral relationship, one which was built upon during the March 2023 visit of President Biden to Canada.

For the better part of four decades, trade between Canada and the U.S. has been governed by a succession of free trade agreements, the most recent of which is the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), which entered into force in July 2020. CUSMA anchors our strong, balanced trading relationship with the United States and Mexico, built on resilient and effective supply chains across all key sectors of the economy. For their economic continued prosperity, both countries need to continue maximizing trading opportunities, including through CUSMA.

United States Economy

The United States has the largest economy in the world, with a per capita GDP of approximately US

$81,630 (GDP of US $23 trillion and 332 million people). The U.S. is the world’s largest consumer market, with private consumption making up nearly 70% of its GDP. Further, the United States is the centre for global innovation; it is responsible for 40 percent of total research and development expenditures in the world. This creates an environment that attracts global companies to operate in the United States and to be closer to their suppliers and customers.

Forecast: The Economist Intelligence Unit expects U.S. real GDP growth to slow to less than 1.8% in 2024, as elevated interest rates and still-high inflation start to weigh on consumption more heavily.

However, this slower growth might be somewhat offset by resilient consumer demand and a wave of public investment, largely directed toward infrastructure and industry. These factors are likely to support a sturdier average annual growth of 2% over the rest of the 2025-28 forecast period. Headline inflation for the same period is expected to hover slightly above the 2% target of the Federal Reserve.

Status of Commercial Relations

Canada and the United States enjoy the world’s most comprehensive trading relationship, which supports millions of jobs in each country. They are each other’s largest trade partners with nearly $3.6 billion worth of goods and services crossing the border each day in 2023. Many of these goods involve co-investing and co-development making our networks highly integrated. Priority sectors for the Trade Commissioner Service in the U.S. include automotive, aerospace & defence, ICT, life sciences, cleantech, and agriculture & processed food. Further, there are also significant opportunities for deeper integration between Canada and the U.S. in several strategic areas such as critical minerals, clean hydrogen, clean technologies, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing.

In 2023, the U.S. remained Canada’s top merchandise trading partner. Canada’s total merchandise exports to the U.S. in 2023 stood at $595.1 billion, a slight 0.7% decrease over the previous year. In that year, top exports to the U.S. were mineral fuel and oils ($173.1billion); vehicles and parts ($78.5 billion); machinery ($45.63 billion); plastics ($19.0B) and precious stones and metals (18.9 billion). For the same year, Canada’s total merchandise imports from the U.S. stood at $374.2 billion, a modest increase of 2.1% over the previous year. The top imports from the U.S. were vehicles and parts ($72.0B); machinery ($52.0B); mineral fuels and oils ($40.2 billion); electronics ($19.5 billion); and plastics ($17.9 billion).

Foreign Direct Investment

Canada and the U.S. have a significant investment relationship. The U.S. is the single greatest investor in Canada and Canada was the largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the United States by ultimate investor country (UIC), at the end of 2022. In 2021, there were over 9,800 American affiliates that employed over 1.5 million Canadians and Canadian multinational enterprises in the U.S. supported nearly 700,000 jobs. Canadian investment in the U.S. makes up roughly 13% of all foreign investment.

In 2022, United States ranked as the largest investor country of FDI stock in Canada. FDI stock from the United States stood at $581 billion (on an UIC basis), an increase of $30 billion or 5.4% from 2021. This represented 49% of the FDI stock into Canada. In 2023, over 63% of American FDI in Canada concentrated in three sectors: 1) management of companies and enterprises (32% or $184 billion), 2) manufacturing (18% or $107 billion), and 3) finance and insurance (13% or $77 billion).

Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA)

The CUSMA, which received bi-partisan approval from the U.S. Congress, updated a 25-year-old agreement and provides the foundation for strengthened regional competitiveness. Among others, CUSMA includes new chapters on good regulatory practices, customs administration and trade facilitation, and improves disciplines for trade in goods and agriculture, and for rules of origin, such as those for passenger vehicles and trucks.

The CUSMA is a comprehensive, high-standard agreement, operationalized through a robust committee structure to oversee its implementation. While certain trade irritants persist, the Parties continue their productive dialogue on the effective implementation of the Agreement and, when necessary, invoke the treaty’s dispute settlement mechanisms. There have been six state-to-state dispute settlement cases initiated under the Agreement. Three of these cases remain in progress: the United States’ interpretation of the rules of origin for core parts in the automotive sector; Mexico’s measures in the electricity sector; and Mexico’s measures concerning genetically engineered products. There are also various softwood lumber related cases that Canada is advancing through the binational panel process under both Chapter 10 (Trade Remedies) of the CUSMA and Chapter 19 (Review and Dispute Settlement in Antidumping/Countervailing Duty Matters) of the NAFTA, which CUSMA replaced.

CUSMA contains a review clause which calls for the first joint review in 2026. Canada will be prepared to defend and advance its interests in a range of review scenarios.

Recent U.S. measures:

Buy America: The U.S. $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) included new and expanded Buy America requirements that apply to any infrastructure project undertaken with federal financial assistance.

EO Invent it Here, Make it Here: The Executive Order on “Invent it Here, Make it Here” (July 2023) expands the application of the Bayh-Doyle Act’s competitiveness provision, which requires that inventions funded by the U.S. government, be “manufactured substantially” in the United States.

Inflation Reduction Act (IRA): The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), signed into law on Aug 16, 2022, is the U.S.’ largest piece of climate legislation in history, authorizing an estimated $369B in incentives and investments for the U.S.’ energy transition. It contains several incentives and tax credit programs to incentivize domestic production and the development of supply chains related to clean vehicles, batteries, renewable energy, and clean fuels production and related infrastructure projects.

CHIPS Act: The Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) and Science Act is designed to support the U.S. efforts to “re-shore” semiconductor manufacturing to decrease reliance on the Asia-Pacific manufacturing cluster. The CHIPS Act includes funding for U.S. allies, like Canada, under the US$500 million CHIPS for America International Technology Security and Innovation Fund, administered by the U.S. State Department.

Canada and the United States Offices

Canadian presence in the United States: Canada has an Embassy in Washington, D.C., Consulates General in Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, San Francisco, and Seattle, 3 trade offices, and 14 Honorary Consuls. The Trade Commissioner Service is present in 16 Canadian missions in the United States, with a total of approximately 180 employees supporting international business development initiatives.

United States presence in Canada: The United States maintains an embassy in Ottawa and consulates in Calgary, Halifax, Montreal, Quebec City, Toronto, Vancouver, and Winnipeg.

Representation: Canadian Ambassador to the U.S.: Kirsten Hillman (appointed on March 26, 2020);

U.S. Ambassador to Canada: David L. Cohen (appointed on November 30, 2021).

Mexico commercial brief

Supplementary messages

Update

The CUSMA Free Trade Commission (FTC) meeting was held May 21-22, 2024, in Arizona. Minister Ng met with her Mexican counterpart Secretary of Economy Raquel Buenrostro on the margins of the FTC. Mexico’s Presidential Elections will take place on June 2 with the Presidential Inauguration scheduled for October 21, 2024.

Supporting facts and figures &²Ô²ú²õ±è;

Background &²Ô²ú²õ±è;

Canada-Mexico Bilateral Relationship: Mexico is well connected to the Americas, North American supply chains, and is one of the most advanced economies in Latin America. Its strong manufacturing sector, relatively lower labour costs, and its proximity to the United States and Canada are some of the economic advantages that attract foreign businesses and investors. This offers significant opportunities to Canadian exporters in several Mexican industries, notably in mining, agriculture, and clean technologies. Mexico is a member of CUSMA, CPTPP, and is a full member of the Pacific Alliance. Mexico is also a key partner in the North American Leaders’ Summit (NALS); Canada is expected to host the next NALS in 2024. 

Partial Visa Reimposition: On February 29, 2024, Canada partially reimposed visa requirements on Mexican citizens due to an exponential increase in asylum claims. Advance notice was provided to Mexico, fulfilling Canada’s CUSMA obligation. The majority of Mexican business travellers are not impacted given many hold valid U.S. non-immigrant visas, exempting them from Canada’s visa requirement.  

Mexico-Canada High Level Economic Dialogue (HLED): The forum focuses on shared priorities (as opposed to irritants) such as the recovery from the pandemic, inclusive trade strategies, innovation, and the strengthening of regional and resilient supply chains. The dialogue has a mandate of enhancing collaboration between GAC, ISED, and Mexico’s Ministry of Economy. The first HLED meeting was held virtually on August 15, 2022 and discussions are underway regarding a second HLED as soon as this fall. &²Ô²ú²õ±è;

Responsible Business Conduct: RBC is at the nexus of many priorities for Canada such as the respect for human rights, taking action on climate change, inclusive trade, upholding the rights of Indigenous peoples and amplifying our feminist international assistance policy. In Canada, and in many of the jurisdictions where they operate, Canadian companies follow the Mining Association of Canada’s Towards Sustainable Mining standard. This is the first mining sustainability standard in the world and is considered a global best practice. Canadian mining companies in Mexico have played an important role in improving the social economic well-being of communities, including through investments in medical resources, road improvement and social support. &²Ô²ú²õ±è;

Canada-United States Trade Snapshot

This document is produced by the United States division (NGA) at ¶¶ÒùÊÓƵ in consultation with the Office of the Chief Economist. It is updated as most recent data becomes available.

Canada-U.S. Trade in 2023

Canada-U.S. Trade in Services

CanadaU.S.
$107.0B CAD (53.3%) of Canada’s services exports went to the U.S. in 2023.$78.5B USD (7.9%) of U.S. services exports went to Canada in 2023.
$123.3B CAD (58.6%) of Canada’s services imports were from the U.S. in 2023.$51.0B USD (7.5%) of U.S. services imports were from Canada in 2023.

Canadian merchandise exports 2023

Canadian merchandise imports 2023

Canada’s Merchandise Trade Balance with the U.S., in 2023 $221.5B CAD

U.S. merchandise exports 2023

U.S. merchandise imports 2023

Canada’s merchandise exports to the U.S. by province in 2023

Canada’s merchandise exports to the U.S. by province in 2023

Text version - Figure 1

Figure 1. A map of Canada with red and blue circles reading Canada's merchandise exports to the U.S., by province in 2023. The following are the provinces in order of merchandise exports to the U.S.: ON 42.3%, AB 26.2%, QC 14.7%, BC 5.2%, SK 4.5%, MB 2.6%, NB 2.6%, NL 0.8%, NS 0.7%, PE 0.3%, NT  0%, NU 0%, YT  0%.

Top 10 Canadian merchandise exports to the U.S. 2023

Merchandise TypeShare of Canadian Merchandise Exports to the U.S.
Mineral fuels and oils29.1%
Vehicles & parts13.2%
Machinery7.7%
Plastics3.2%
Precious stones and metals3.2%
Electronics2.7%
Wood2.6%
Aluminium2.6%
Iron & Steel1.9%
Aircrafts & parts1.7%

Top 10 U.S. destinations for Canadian merchandise exports, 2023

Top 10 U.S. destinations for Canadian merchandise exports, 2023

Text version - Figure 2

Figure 2. A map of the U.S. reading the Top 10 U.S. destinations for Canadian merchandise exports and Canadian missions in the U.S. The following are the top 10 states in order of merchandise exports: IL 15.8%, MI 11.9%, TX 8.7%, NY 5.6, WA 4.9%, OH 4.2%, CA 3.8%, MN 3.4% PA 3.3%, IN 2.8%. The following are the list of Canadian missions in U.S.: Seattle, Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, Boston, New York, Atlanta, Miami, Dallas, Houston, San Diego, Palo Alto, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and the Embassy in Washington, DC.

Top 10 Canadian Merchandise Imports from the U.S. 2023

Merchandise typeShare of Canadian Merchandise Imports from the U.S.
Vehicles & Parts19.2%
Machinery13.9%
Mineral fuels & oils10.7%
Electronics5.2%
Plastics4.8%
Scientific Instruments2.4%
Chemical products2.2%
Iron & Steel products2.1%
Precious stones & metals2.0%
Paper1.9%

Canada-U.S. trade facts

U.S. economic update

U.S. trade and economic policy

U.S. international trade in goods and services

Trade Commissioner Service presence

Canada-Mexico Trade Snapshot

This document is produced by the Mexico and Trilateral Affairs Division (NGI) at ¶¶ÒùÊÓƵ in consultation with the Office of the Chief Economist. It is updated as most recent data becomes available.

Trade update

Canada's trade and investment with Mexico continues to grow with over $54.8 billion in two-way merchandise trade in 2023 (exports: $8.8 billion; imports: $46.1 billion). Mexico is Canada's third largest single-country merchandise trading partner (after the U.S. and China). Canada was Mexico's fifth-largest merchandise trading partner in 2022.

Canadian Goods Exports, 2023
Text version - Figure 3

Canadian Goods Exports, 2023

  • All other countries, 13%
  • China, 4%
  • Japan, 2%
  • United Kingdom, 2%
  • Mexico, 1%
  • United States, 77%

Canada merchandise exports to Mexico decreased by 3.8% from 2022 to 2023.

Canadian Goods Imports, 2023
Text version - Figure 4

Canadian Goods Imports, 2023

  • All other countries, 19%
  • China, 8%
  • Mexico, 4%
  • Germany, 3%
  • Japan, 2%
  • United States, 63%

Canada merchandise imports from Mexico increased by 11.2% from 2022 to 2023.

Top 5 Canadian Goods Exports to Mexico by type, 2023
Text version - Figure 5

Top 5 Canadian Goods Exports to Mexico by type, 2023

  • Motor vehicles and parts, 25%
  • Farm, fishing and intermediate food prodcts, 20%
  • Consumer goods, 16%
  • Metal and non-metallic mineral products, 11%
  • Industrial machinery, equipment and parts, 8%
  • All others, 19%
Top 5 Canadian Goods Imports from Mexico by type, 2023
Text version - Figure 6

Top 5 Canadian Goods Imports from Mexico by type, 2023

  • Motor vehicles and parts, 46%
  • Electronic and electrical equipment and parts, 19%
  • Consumer goods, 11%
  • Industrial machinery, equipment and parts, 7%
  • Farm, fishing and intermediate food products, 6%
  • All others, 11%

Trade Commissioner Service (TCS)

Located in Mexico City, Monterrey, and Guadalajara with 35 employees supporting TCS clients. 

Complementing TCS, co-located colleagues include:

Additionally, Québec has a Délégation générale in Mexico City.

Mexico’s Real GDP Growth (%)
Text version - Figure 7

Mexico’s Real GDP Growth (%)

  • 2018a, 2.2
  • 2019a, -0.2
  • 2020a, -8
  • 2021a, 4.7
  • 2022b, 3
  • 2023b, 1.1
  • 2024b, 1.8

a – Actual
b – EIU Projected

Canada-Mexico Trade in Services

Canadian Good Exports to Mexico By Province, 2023
Text version - Figure 8

Canadian Good Exports to Mexico By Province, 2023

Note: % of Canada’s total exports to Mexico with top exported product per province

  • NU: Arts & Antiques, 0.01%
  • YT: Tools & Cutlery, 0.01%
  • PEI : Mineral Fuels & Mineral Oils, 0.05%
  • NL : Paper Products, 0.19%
  • NS : Chemical Products, 0.33%
  • NB : Iron and Steel, 0.37%
  • BC : Ores, Slag and Ash, 2.10%
  • MB : Meat, 7.20%
  • AB : Meat, 10.50%
  • SK : Oilseeds, 10.95%
  • QC : Aluminium, 22.40%
  • ON : Motor Vehicles & Parts, 45.88%

Commercial opportunities

Commercial challenges

Mexico's trade agreements, alliances & memberships

Canada-U.S.-Mexico Trade Snapshot

This document is produced by the Mexico and Trilateral Affairs Division (NGI) at ¶¶ÒùÊÓƵ in consultation with the Office of the Chief Economist. It is updated as most recent data becomes available.   

Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade

On July 1, 2020, the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) entered into force. Today this market represents 506 million consumers and a combined GDP of $42 trillion.

CUSMA includes new chapters on good regulatory practices, customs administration and trade facilitation, and improves disciplines for trade in goods and agriculture, and for rules of origin, such as those for passenger vehicles and trucks.

Trilateral merchandise trade between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, as measured by the total of each country’s imports from its other two partners, reached $1.93 trillion in 2023, up from $1.86 trillion in 2022.          

At the end of 2023, the stock of direct investment in Canada from our North American partners was $700.1 billion, while Canada had invested C$1.1 trillion in our two North American partners.

Between 1993 and 2023, total merchandise trade between Canada and the United States more than tripled and total merchandise trade between Canada and Mexico grew nearly 11-fold. Overall, total trilateral merchandise trade increased nearly five-fold since 1993.

The CUSMA established 25 trilateral committees, working groups, and other subsidiary bodies between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico with mandates to implement the Agreement and resolve issues.

Canadian Missions In Mexico And The U.S
Text version - Figure 9

Canadian Missions In Mexico And The U.S

  • Mexico City, Mexico- Canadian Embassy
  • Washington D.C.- Canadian Embassy

Consulates General:

  • Atlanta - Consulate General
  • Boston - Consulate General
  • Chicago - Consulate General
  • Dallas - Consulate General
  • Denver - Consulate General
  • Detroit - Consulate General
  • Houston - Consulate General
  • Jalisco - Consulate General
  • Los Angeles - Consulate General
  • Miami - Consulate General
  • Minneapolis - Consulate General
  • New York - Consulate General
  • Nuevo Leon - Consulate General
  • Palo Alto - Consulate General
  • San Francisco - Consulate General
  • San Diego - Consulate General
  • Seattle - Consulate General

Total annual value of trilateral* merchandise trade between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico

Canada’s total bilateral merchandise trade with the U.S.

Canada’s total bilateral merchandise trade with Mexico

* Trilateral merchandise trade between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico is measured by the total of each country’s imports from its other two partners

Product Trade (2023)
United StatesMexico
Canadian Exports$595 billion$8.9 billion
Canadian Imports$374 billion$46.1 billion
Foreign Direct Investment (2023, CA$)
United StatesMexico
Foreign Direct Investment in Canada$697.3 billion$2.8 billion
Canadian Direct Investment in country$1.1 trillion$40.4 billion
Economic Information (2023)
CanadaUnited StatesMexico
GDP (billion)$2,889$36,929$2,420
GDP per capita$72,047$110,264$18,455
GDP Growth Rate (%)1.22.53.2
CPI (%)3.93.44.7
Unemployment (%)5.43.62.6

The U.S. is Canada’s #1 bilateral merchandise trading partner (2023).

Mexico is Canada’s #3 bilateral merchandise trading partner (2023).

Canadian Merchandise Trade - Global

Canadian goods exports, 2023

Canadian good imports, 2023

Data sources:
Macroeconomic information: World Bank/IMF
Trade and investment data: Statistics Canada

Quarterly economic and trade report – Q4 2023

Highlights

The global economy expanded in the 4th quarter (Q4) of 2023, with notable growth in the United States (U.S), as well as China and other emerging markets. After falling four consecutive quarters, world merchandise trade volumes grew in Q4.

Canada’s goods and service exports to the world rose 1.7% in the 4th quarter of 2023, with growth in services (+2.4%) outpacing goods (+1.5%). Energy exports, particularly crude oil volumes, contributed heavily to overall growth. Additionally, spending by foreign visitors to Canada bolstered travel services exports.

Canadian imports of goods and services edged up 0.3% in Q4. While imports of consumer and industrial goods increased, a notable decline in motor vehicle imports kept overall goods import growth subdued at 0.2%. On the services side, higher imports of transportation and commercial services helped bolster service import growth to 1.4%

Canada’s goods exports to the U.S. flatlined at 0%, while imports fell 1.7% in Q4. However, Canada’s trade in goods with the rest of the world grew, with exports (+6.9%) rising faster than imports (+3.3%).

Global economic activity in 2024 is expected to be subdued due to the lingering effects of elevated interest rates. However, as inflation subsides and prompts central banks to ease monetary policy, more favourable conditions for consumption, investment, and ultimately global trade should propel the world towards a projected 3.1% growth in 2024.

Table 1: Highlights – Fourth Quarter 2023
% change, Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023% annual change (2023 vs 2022)
Global real GDP* 2.6%3.1%
Global merchandise trade volume0.5%-1.9%
Canadian real GDP*1.0%1.1%
Canadian exports (goods & services)1.7%1.8%
Canadian imports (goods & services)0.3%3.3%
Notes: *Throughout the report, GDP is quarterly changes at annualized rates.
Source: Oxford Economics, Netherland Bureau for Economic Analysis, Statistics Canada; IMF January World Economic Outlook.

Most major economies post growth in Q4

Global economic growth in Q4 (+2.6% annualized) was supported by gains across several G7 countries (Canada, U.S., Italy, France) and China. Overall, quarterly growth in advanced economies (+1.6% annualized) trailed behind growth in emerging markets (+4.2% annualized).

The U.S. economy grew at a solid 3.2% annualized rate in Q4, supported by increases in various sectors like consumer spending, local and state government spending, residential and non-residential investment, and exports. Additionally, a 2.2% quarterly rise in real disposable income boded well for consumer spending. However, as the U.S. government works towards it stated goal of deficit reduction, potential cuts to fiscal spending and tax hikes could dampen economic activity.

In China, the economy grew 4.7% on annualized basis in Q4. Private and government consumption were key contributors to this growth, and increased government spending on capacity building against natural disasters is expected to further propel economic activity into 2024. 

In neighboring Japan, GDP declined a slight 0.4% (annualized) in Q4 with drags from private and government consumption as well as inventories.

Economic performance in Europe was lackluster in Q4, with GDP either contracting on an annualized basis in major economies like the U.K. (-1.4%) and Germany (-1.1%) or posting muted growth. The outlook for 2024 faces challenges as weak private and government consumption as well as investment are expected to restrain growth in the Eurozone.  

World merchandise trade volumes increase for the first time in four quarters

World merchandise trade volumes increased 0.5% in Q4, the first increase after four consecutive quarterly decrease. During Q4, both imports (+0.5%) and exports (+0.5%) expanded. On an annual basis, world merchandise trade volumes declined by 1.9% in 2023.

Economic growth in several regions supported domestic demand for foreign goods in Q4. Notably, import volumes in China (+1.7%) and other emerging economies in Asia (+4.0%) grew. U.S. import volumes also increased on a quarterly basis (+1.2%). However, in areas of the world where growth was more subdued, demand for foreign goods was less pronounced. Namely, overall import volumes from advanced economies fell slightly (-0.1%), with the Euro area experiencing a significant drop (-2.6%).

On the export side, export volumes from advanced economies grew modestly Q4 (+1.0%). While the U.S. posted a 0.9% gain in Q4, this represents a deceleration in growth from Q3. Emerging economies registered a 0.4% fall in export volumes, with notable slowdowns in China (-0.4%), and eastern Europe (-5.9%).

World industrial production edged up 0.5% in Q4, thanks to higher production volumes in both advanced economies (+0.2%) and emerging economies (+0.8%). Industrial production in China grew for a second quarter in a row, climbing 2.0%. 

Growth expected to remain muted in advanced economies

The IMF forecasts global economic growth to temper at 3.1% in 2024 (same as in 2023), before inching up slightly to 3.2% in 2025.

Economic growth in advanced economies is expected to drop to 1.5% in 2024, which falls below the historical average (2000-2019) of 1.9%. While the U.S. is projected to outperform the advanced economies average with 2.1% growth in 2024, growth is expected to fall to 1.7% in 2025. This deceleration is forecasted due to lagging effects of tighter monetary and fiscal policies, and dampened demand from a softening labour market.

While the IMF forecast for emerging economies predicts that real GDP growth will land at 4.1% in 2024, this figure remains below the 2000-2019 average of 5.5%. In China, economic growth is projected to reach 4.6% in 2024, buoyed by resilient economic performance in 2023 and the prospect of increased government spending. India’s economic performance is anticipated to expand notably, with growth projected at 6.5% this year.

A delicate balance of factors will determine the economic landscape for 2024. On the upside, a faster-than-expected slowdown in inflation offers hope for looser financial conditions. Furthermore, technological advancements like AI could unlock much needed productivity gains for economies that seize them. However, several risks remain. Geopolitical uncertainty, notably political instability in the Middle East, poses threats to commodity prices and supply chains. Moreover, stubbornly high inflation could necessitate prolonged monetary tightening and temper growth.

Canadian GDP grew modestly in Q4

The Canadian economy expanded 1.0% (annualized) in Q4, following an upwardly revised loss of 0.5% in Q3. Higher exports of goods and services (+5.6%) and lower imports (-1.7%) were key contributors to growth. Notably, net trade added 2.4 percentage points to GDP growth in Q4.

Household consumption climbed 1.0% in Q4, making it the second largest contributor to growth. This increase was led by higher spending on trucks, vans, and utility vehicles, which are benefiting from easing supply chain issues. The household savings rate remained stable at 6.2% in Q4, as spending and disposable income grew at nearly the same pace.

On the other hand, business investment placed a notable drag on growth, falling 5.3% in Q4. Investments in inventories also fell as lower retail and wholesale trade inventories were partially, but not fully, offset by higher manufacturing inventories. Furthermore, government spending (-1.9%) also drew back in Q4.

Despite the quarterly gain, GDP fell again on a per capita basis as economic growth struggles to keep up with an ever-expanding population. This dynamic also played out in the labour market, where employment growth (+0.5%) lagged labour force growth (+0.7%) for the fourth consecutive quarter. As a result, the unemployment rate climbed to 5.8% in Q4. A silver lining from higher unemployment is that it signals a rebalancing between labour supply and demand, which is expected to help lower core inflation.

On an annual basis, real GDP grew 1.1% in 2023, which represents the slowest growth rate from 2016 (aside from the 2020 contraction). Several factors stifled growth, including high interest rates, forest fires and drought conditions, as well as strikes across several industries.

Both goods and service producing industries expand in Q4

Both goods producing industries and service producing industries grew in real terms (0.2% and 0.1% respectively) in Q4. This marked the 10th consecutive quarter of growth for service producing industries.

Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (+2.2%) represented the largest driver of growth in the fourth quarter, largely thanks to growth in oil and gas extraction (+1.9%). In the service industries, retail trade (+1.2%) contributed the most to growth as gains were realized by health and personal care retailers.

Education services put a significant dent in growth, falling by 2.5% in Q4. Lower activity in elementary and secondary schools contributed the most to this decline, as strikes by Quebec public sector workers persisted from November to December.

The construction sector also contracted in Q4 (-0.7%) due to lower output in the engineering and other construction activities subsector. However, both residential and non-residential construction held strong, growing 1.3% and 1.6%, respectively.

Canadian trade ends Q4 on a positive note with growth in both exports and imports

Canadian goods and services exports grew 1.7% in value in Q4, representing a second consecutive quarterly growth. Goods exports increased 1.5% while service exports expanded 2.4%. Energy products (+5.5%) led the increase in exports, which were bolstered by higher crude oil volumes. Overall, 6 of 11 goods categories expanded, with metal ores and non-metallic minerals posting the largest recovery (+9.6%) after falling most significantly in Q3. In terms of services, 2 of 4 categories expanded. Export of travel services recorded the highest growth at 4.6%, marking the 11th quarterly consecutive increase for this category.

After falling in the previous quarter, good and services imports posted a slight gain of 0.3%. Goods imports inched up 0.2%, while service imports grew 1.0%. Overall, 6 out of 11 goods import categories increased. Increases in the import of consumer goods (+4.3%) and chemical, plastic and rubber products (+7.4%) were largely offset by lower imports of motor vehicles (-4.3%). On the services side, 2 of 4 categories increased. After falling in the previous quarter, transportation services ballooned 4.3%. On the other hand, imports of travel services fell 3.1% in Q4. As expenses of Canadians travelling abroad fell and expenses of non-residents visiting Canada grew, Canada ended Q4 in a travel services surplus.

On an annual basis, total trade in goods and services grew 2.5% in 2023, with imports (+3.3%) growing at a faster pace than exports (1.8%).

Goods trade growth in Q4 led by countries other than U.S.

Goods exports to the U.S. stagnated at 0.0%, while imports from the U.S. fell by 1.7% in Q4. Fluctuations in automotive trade partly explain these figures. At the start of Q4, strikes by U.S. auto workers hindered Canadian motor vehicle imports. Conversely, towards the end of the quarter, Canada exported fewer cars and light trucks due to model phase-outs.

On the other hand, Canada’s trade with non-U.S. countries expanded in Q4. Canadian exports to European Union countries grew modestly (+3.8%) as Canada exported various products ranging from minerals to aircraft parts. There were notable increases in exports to Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands, while exports to Belgium, France, and Germany fell on a quarterly basis. Furthermore, Canadian imports to the European Union also grew in Q4 (+2.9%).

Exports to China also expanded (+3.4%) in Q4 but were outpaced by import growth (+7.9%) which widened Canada’s goods trade deficit with China to $7.3B.

Canada’s service trade deficit narrowed in Q4

Service exports to the U.S. increased 2.3% in Q4, marking the seventh consecutive quarterly increase. Meanwhile, service imports from the US fell 3.3%. As a result, the services trade deficit with the U.S. contracted to $2.5 billion. 

Both service exports and imports to countries other than the U.S. grew in Q4. Service exports to the EU grew 3.7% as a result of widespread increases in exports to major countries like Italy (+20.7), Spain (+27.8%), and Belgium (+4.3%). Imports from the EU also posted a gain (+3.1%).

After falling in the previous quarter, service exports to China jumped up 5.6% in Q4. However, Canadian service imports from China grew at a faster pace than exports at 6.7%.

Growth in the number of Canadian travellers abroad (+7.4%) outpaced growth in the number of non-residents visiting Canada (+4.6%) in Q4. While the large majority of non-resident visitors to Canada were U.S. residents, there was a notable increase (+12.1%) in the number of non-U.S. travellers to Canada.

Canada's international student population surged by 29.4% in 2023, with significant growth coming from India, Nigeria, and the Philippines. This influx of international students bolstered Canada’s service exports to the world.

Canada's GDP forecasted to slow in 2024, with potential for higher growth in 2025

Canada's economy faces a potential deceleration in 2024 (0.8% growth) before speeding up in 2025 (2.4%), according to the Bank of Canada's January 2024 Monetary Policy Report.

The Bank of Canada anticipates inflation – which is already sitting at 2.8% as of February – to gradually approach the 2% target in the coming years. As past rate hikes continue to restrain consumption and investment and subdued foreign demand weighs on exports, output exceeds demand. Excess supply in the economy is forecasted to increase into the first half of 2024, thereby placing a downwards pressure on prices. While real wages have been rising in Canada, this trend may see some moderation as the labour market approaches a better balance between supply and demand. With these factors aligning, the Bank forecasts inflation to reach 2.2% in 2025. Despite these notes of optimism, persistent shelter inflation remains a challenge due to structural supply constraints, persistent demand from population growth and high mortgage interest costs.

In the short term, economic growth faces headwinds due to elevated interest rates, global uncertainty, and weak foreign demand for Canadian exports. However, as inflation subsides and the effects of past rate hikes wane, increased consumer spending and investment are anticipated to propel economic activity into 2025.

Annex: Tables

Table 1: Canadian trade by industry sector ($ millions)
ExportsImports
Q4 – 2023Q/Q %Y/Y %Q4 – 2023Q/Q %Y/Y %
Goods195,0371.50.5192,0300.2-0.8
Resource products113,5392.3-5.561,2760.4-7.9
Energy products46,8515.5-5.010,392-5.1-23.9
Non-resource products76,1440.110.9123,542-0.12.9
Industrial machinery & equipment12,8930.65.422,3661.71.1
Electronic machinery & equipment8,262-0.83.120,855-0.4-2.2
Motor vehicles and parts25,644-1.525.936,218-4.314.3
Aircraft & other transportation equipment8,1626.217.36,205-5.21.1
Consumer goods21,183-0.10.437,8984.3-2.3
Services51,8622.411.353,6261.07.8
Travel14,1364.624.713,021-3.114.4
Transportation4,881-0.3-2.38,6614.3-2.4
Commercial32,4221.98.631,4652.08.3
Government423-0.9-1.2478-0.26.7
Total Goods and Services246,8991.72.6245,6560.31.0
Note: “Q/Q %” is the change from the previous quarter; “Y/Y %” is the change from the same quarter the previous year.
Sources: Statistics Canada Table 36-10-0019-01 and 36-10-0021-01. Balance of payments basis, seasonally adjusted.
Table 2: Canadian goods trade by trading partner ($ millions)
ExportsImports
Q4 – 2023 ($ million)Q/Q %Y/Y %Q4 – 2023 ($ million)Q/Q %Y/Y %
United States151,1200.03.6119,590-1.7-2.2
Mexico2,154-13.0-18.97,361-1.019.2
European Union8,5723.8-10.918,6142.95.9
     France894-17.0-14.91,504-2.20.9
     Germany1,712-1.2-10.35,034-5.70.7
United Kingdom4,06611.40.12,476-1.96.0
Indo-Pacific Region18,4726.4-9.327,3506.4-0.5
China7,7283.4-14.815,0517.9-7.6
Japan3,7994.9-13.24,2876.544.0
Hong Kong SAR1,171-28.155.7888-5.6-13.9
South Korea1,86625.9-1.43,40419.127.6
India1,49033.3-14.01,294-6.7-22.9
Australia83217.016.2627-2.6-9.8
Indonesia65748.0-26.4389-3.7-19.1
Singapore47521.815.0423-12.60.0
Taiwan454-8.1-12.9987-1.8-21.5
Rest of the world10,65314.0-7.216,6391.6-6.2
Total Goods Trade195,0371.50.5192,0300.2-0.8
Notes: The Indo-Pacific region total includes only the 9 markets for which data are available. “Q/Q %” is the change from the previous quarter; “Y/Y %” is the change from the same quarter the previous year.
Source: Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0023-01. Balance of payments basis, seasonally unadjusted.
Table 3: Canadian services trade by trading partner ($ millions)
ExportsImports
Q4 – 2023 ($ million)Q/Q %Y/Y %Q4 – 2023 ($ million)Q/Q %Y/Y %
United States27,6022.311.230,087-3.3-0.1
Mexico8144.943.31,39419.935.6
European Union5,8293.717.17,0173.116.9
     France1,5911.828.71,1357.322.0
     Germany1,1133.318.3998-0.910.6
United Kingdom2,3402.79.92,83513.912.4
Indo-Pacific Region7,3733.55.45,6982.76.3
China1,8555.611.09146.7-0.7
Japan5966.414.8746-16.213.7
Hong Kong SAR6791.3-2.61,3775.3-5.4
South Korea413-15.913.220617.717.0
India2,6126.3-1.39492.826.0
Australia7062.522.13938.919.1
Indonesia58-3.3-9.45113.327.5
Singapore3282.81.97196.7-1.1
Taiwan1262.4-4.53438.514.0
Rest of the world7,9040.210.96,59510.939.7
Total Services Trade51,8622.411.353,6261.07.8
Notes: The Indo-Pacific region total includes only the 9 markets for which data are available. “Q/Q %” is the change from the previous quarter; “Y/Y %” is the change from the same quarter the previous year.
Source: Statistics Canada, Table 12-10-0157-01. Balance of payments basis, seasonally unadjusted.

Foreign investment in North America

Update

On May 23, 2024, following the fourth CUSMA FTC meeting in Phoenix, AZ, you, together with your U.S. and Mexican counterparts, issued a ministerial statement that Canada, the U.S. and Mexico would “jointly expand their collaboration on issues related to non-market policies and practices of other countries, which undermine the Agreement and harm U.S., Canadian, and Mexican workers, including in the automotive and other sectors.”

Supporting facts and figures

Background

Growing Chinese investment in North America, particularly in Mexico, is increasingly dominating priorities and policymaking in the U.S. economic and trade policy space, including concerns that China may be able to circumvent U.S. tariffs and gain preferential access to the North American market, especially in the automotive sector. The Biden Administration has taken actions to bolster the U.S.’ own competitiveness through industrial policy (including through subsidies and tax credits to shift supply chains away from China), and to contain China’s economic and technological development through strategic interventions to limit China’s access to critical technologies. At the same time, political pressures in the United States are building for further actions, including safeguarding the collection of American sensitive personal data, and applying restrictions on goods produced in any country by “foreign entities of concern”, defined as entities owned by, controlled by, or subject to the jurisdiction or direction of the governments of China, Russia, North Korea and Iran.

Mexico's current position on Chinese investment remains neutral, with the government focused on maximizing FDI attraction as part of the nearshoring phenomenon. Yet, Mexico remains committed to expanding trilateral collaboration on issues related to non-market policies and practices of other countries, as agreed at the fourth CUSMA FTC meeting. In December 2023, US Treasury and Mexico’s Secretary of Finance signed a Memorandum of Intent (MOI) to stand up a working group for regular exchanges of information about how investment screening can best protect national security. Of note, large Chinese EV producers (e.g. BYD, MG Motor and Chery) have expressed interest in opening production facilities in Mexico. However, this has yet to result in actual investment operations.

In Canada, the Automotive Parts Manufacturers Association (APMA) has publicly voiced concerns about the growth of Chinese foreign investment in the Mexican automotive sector, including investments made by Chinese state-owned enterprises. APMA is concerned that Chinese suppliers, backed by the government of China, could displace existing investments in Mexico by APMA members.

Partial visa reimposition in Mexico

Update

On February 29, 2024, Canada partially re-imposed a visa requirement on Mexicans nationals travelling to Canada. Advance notice was provided to Mexico, fulfilling Canada’s CUSMA obligation. Canada earlier imposed a full visa requirement on Mexican nationals in 2009 which was lifted on December 1, 2016. Both instances of visa impositions were the result of record-breaking levels of asylum claims.

Supporting facts and figures

Background

On February 29, 2024, Canada re-imposed a partial visa requirement on Mexican nationals. All Mexicans travelling to Canada, including those on work and study permits, now require a Canadian visa to enter, except those traveling by air who either hold a valid U.S. non-immigrant visa or have held a Canadian visa in the past 10 years. Air travellers who meet one of the two conditions are eligible to apply for an Electronic Travel Authorization (eTA). All Mexican travellers entering Canada by car, bus, train, or boat (including cruise ship passengers who do not intend on leaving the ship) now require a Canadian visa to enter.

Impact on the business community has been minimal, with no significant issues reported. Most Mexican business travellers are not impacted given that many hold valid U.S. non-immigrant visas, thereby exempting them from Canada’s visa requirement. Mexicans looking to work in Canada for short or long terms can continue to travel to Canada under numerous regular pathways, including the Temporary Foreign Workers Program (TFWP) and the International Mobility Program (IMP) that includes mobility pathways under CUSMA and CPTP. They must also meet visa requirements. Under the TFWP, Mexico continues to be the top source country for the Seasonal Agricultural Workers Program (SAWP), which allows Canadian employers to hire temporary foreign workers for a maximum period of 8 months when Canadians and permanent residents are not available. Canada is currently negotiating with Mexico a modernized MoU for the SAWP that would expand occupations to include year-round primary agriculture and seasonal fish, seafood, and primary food processing.

For those requiring visas, Canada has taken multiple measures to facilitate the transition to the new entry requirements. In addition to the full-service Visa Application Centre in Mexico City, Canadian Biometric Operations Centres are operational in Guadalajara, Monterrey, and Merida. Canada is also working on opening Visa Application Centres in Guadalajara and Monterrey in the future. The Canadian Embassy has also introduced a “white glove” visa delivery service to alleviate the additional financial and logistical pressure on Mexican workers. The white glove service will run until the end of the year and be offered to TFWs under the SAWP and to select fish and seafood processing workers. The service allows these workers to submit their passport at the Embassy of Canada in Mexico the day of their departure and have their counterfoil placed in expedited fashion (usually on the same day).

Potential labour actions at CBSA and CN Rail (and supply chain impacts)

Top line messages

Background

There is currently the potential for several work stoppages in Canada that could affect supply chains, including at the Canadian National Railway (CN), Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC), Port of Montréal, West Coast Ports, and the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA).

CN and CPKC are negotiating (separately) with Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) to renew three collective agreements. The Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service has been working with the parties since March 1, 2024. On May 3, federal mediators were appointed to continue assist the parties in their negotiations. On May 9, 2024, pursuant to Section 87.4 (5) of the Canada Labour Code, the Minister of Labour made a referral for decision on the question of maintenance of activities to the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB). Specifically, the Minister has directed CIRB to determine whether there are any activities the parties need to maintain during a work stoppage in order to prevent an immediate and serious danger to the health and safety of Canadians. No strike or lockout can be declared until the CIRB renders its decision. The impact would depend on the nature of the disruption, which could take different forms. A combined work stoppage would be significant for Canadian and American businesses.

The Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service has been working with the parties at the Port of Montréal since October 2023. Bargaining is ongoing and federal mediators are supporting the parties in their negotiations. The parties could file a 72-hour notice of strike or lockout at any time; however, to date, no strike vote has been conducted. The impact would depend on the nature of the disruption, which could take different forms. A full stoppage of longshoremen at the Port will impact about 50% of total tonnage.

Collective bargaining is ongoing between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union Ship and Dock Foremen Local 514 and the British Columbia Maritime Employers Association (BCMEA). The parties are negotiating the renewal of their collective agreement covering foremen working in terminals throughout Canada’s West Coast. On May 10th, the parties acquired the legal right to strike/lockout but may not exercise this right until 72-hour notice has been provided. Federal mediators continue to work with the parties. The impact would depend on the nature of the disruption, which could take different forms. A stoppage could force most terminals to shut down on the West Coast, notably at the Ports of Vancouver and Prince Rupert.

Bulk grain handling activity will continue as it is protected under the Canada Labour Code.

The Government is monitoring ongoing bargaining at the CBSA that has the potential to affect cross-border movements. The union representing border services officers received a strike mandate from its membership when the vote concluded on May 23. The Public Interest Commission (an independent party that includes a union and a management nominee), was released on May 29, 2024, which provides recommendations to both parties to help bring the demands and offers of the two parties closer together. With the Commission’s recommendations, mediation will begin on June 3. The border will remain open; 90% of Border Services Officers are essential workers, which means that they will continue to staff ports of entry in the event of a strike.

The U.S. inflation reduction act and clean tech and environmental investments

Supplementary messages

Background

The Biden-Harris administration is investing heavily in clean technologies and environmental sustainability to combat climate change and meet US commitments under the 2015 Paris Agreement, with a goal of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The inflation Reduction Act (IRA), signed into law on August 16, 2022, is the U.S. largest piece of climate legislation in history, containing an estimated $369B in tax credits, incentives and investments to reduce emissions, develop clean energy projects, advance clean energy manufacturing, promote electric vehicle adoption, and improve energy efficiency. Similarly, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), signed in November 2021, aims to address climate change by investing in clean technologies and resilient infrastructure, including modernizing transit networks with zero- emissions vehicles (ZEVs), building a national network of EV chargers, cleaning up polluted sites, and upgrading power infrastructure to support renewable energy and next-generation technologies.

The IRA contains several incentives and tax credits to incentivize domestic production and the development of supply chains related to clean vehicles, batteries, renewable energy, and clean fuels production and related infrastructure projects.

Certain IRA incentives have the potential to adversely impact Canada’s competitiveness to attract or retain foreign investment. The most significant outstanding concern for Canada in the IRA is the clean electricity tax credits that include local content requirement “boosters” if 100% of iron and steel and not less than 40% (increasing to 55% by 2026) of other manufactured products used in a project are produced in the U.S.

In light of these conditions, Budget 2023 announced targeted consultations on the possibility of introducing reciprocal treatment to Canadian measures. It proposes a range of measures totaling more than $80 billion over 10 years to ensure Canada remains competitive and supports investments critical for the realignment of global supply chains and the net-zero future. It includes a set of clear and predictable investment tax credits, low-cost strategic financing, and targeted investments and programming, where necessary, to respond to the unique needs of sectors or projects of national economic significance. The targeted investments include the contribution agreements concluded in respect of Northvolt, NextStar (Stellantis-LGES) and PowerCo (Volkswagen) to provide production-based financial support for battery manufacturing. These investments are underpinned by Canada’s world-leading pollution pricing systems and large- emitter credit markets.

Some key areas of U.S. Investments under the IRA and the IIJA include:

According to a tally by the White House in August 2023, companies have announced more than $110 billion in new clean energy manufacturing investments, including more than $70 billion in the EV supply chain and more than $10 billion in solar manufacturing since the enactment of the IRA.

“P” and “O” visa fees for performing artists in the United States

Background

The United States Citizenship and Immigration Services recently increased the filing fees for O-type visas (individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement) and P-type visas (internationally recognized athletes/entertainers). The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) published the proposed fee increases in the U.S. Federal Register on January 4, 2023. A public consultation process on this initiative concluded in March 2023 and received nearly 8,000 submissions, including over 300 submissions mentioning Canada. The U.S. delayed implementation of the increased fees until March 2024. The rate increase saw the filing fees for regularly processed O-type visa petitions increase from $460 to $1,655, an increase of 260%. Processing fees for P-type rose by 251% from $460 to $1,615.

Visa fees for performing artists or other cultural-related occupations are not covered under CUSMA, and, as such, the U.S. retains the right to set visa fee levels as part of its general immigration measures. Under CUSMA the core obligation on processing of applications only requires that any processing fees be commensurate to the cost of services rendered (which is the rationale used by U.S. authorities to justify this fee increase).

Canadian stakeholders view these fees as a discriminatory barrier to Canadian artists seeking to perform in the United States. Canada does not impose visa requirements on American artists seeking to perform in Canada. According to the U.S. Department of State Bureau of Consular Affairs, 76 visas were issued to Canadians under the “O visa” category in 2022; and 34 visas were issued to Canadians under the “P visa” category in 2022

MINT@CIIT - Additional material on seizure of goods from Xinjiang

Responsive - Forced Labour in Xinjiang

Responsive – Why hasn’t Canada adopted a Foreign Entities list like that found in the United States?

Background

Credible sources have indicated a campaign of repression and human rights violations by the Chinese government against Uyghurs and other predominantly Muslim communities in Xinjiang. Violations have a strong commercial dimension and supply chain implications, whether through the importation of goods produced using forced labour, the use of Canadian exports in repression, or business dealings with implicated entities. Solar supply chains, fish processing, and automotive sector inputs have received recent public attention and scrutiny related to Xinjiang forced labour. Canada is currently assessing new and existing legislative tools that will help address these concerns. For example, Canadian companies must sign the Xinjiang Integrity Declaration (XID) prior to receiving support from the Trade Commissioner Service if they are: sourcing directly or indirectly from Xinjiang of entities relying on Uyghur labour; established in Xinjiang; or, seeking to engage in the Xinjiang market. By signing the Declaration, companies affirm they are aware of the human rights situation in Xinjiang, are not labour or other human rights violations and commit to conducting due diligence on their suppliers in China.

Québec Bill 96 and Draft Regulations

Issue:

In June 2022, the Government of Québec passed Bill 96 (An Act respecting French, the official and common language of Québec), which introduces new French language requirements in the province of Québec related to trademarks and marking/labelling. Bill 96 and the accompanying January 2024 regulations are expected to come into force in June 2025. A range of Canadian and U.S. stakeholders have expressed concerns that new French language requirements will limit their ability to maintain a business presence in Québec, as well as in Canada more generally. The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) has raised this matter with the Government of Canada [REDACTED] with news reporting suggesting that U.S. stakeholders have lobbied USTR to consider trade sanctions against Canada in response to Québec’s measures.

Background:

Bill 96 modifies more than twenty provincial laws, including the Charter of the French Language and the Civil Code of Québec. The measures narrow the existing exception for the use of non- French language on public signs and on marking/labelling on products and packages in Québec. While Québec’s existing exception permits the use of non-French language on “recognized trademarks” provided that there is no corresponding French version registered, the amendments narrow this exception by requiring that any “generic” or “descriptive” terms on a product or package be displayed in French, including when the terms are elements of registered trademark. The new measures will limit the use of non-French trademarks in Québec to those trademarks that are already registered in Canada, unless a corresponding French version is already registered. The amendments also require that any inscription related to the use of a product (including containers, wrapping, and accompanying documents, as well as inscriptions that are permanently engraved, baked, or inlaid on a product) must appear in French, in addition to any other language. This currently only applies to inscriptions related to the safety of a product.

Further to concerns expressed by stakeholders regarding the possibility that trademarks filed with the Canadian Intellectual Property Office (or CIPO) may not necessarily be registered in advance of the 2025 entry into force of the amendments due to a “backlog” of applications with CIPO, Québec’s draft regulations now broaden the term “registered trademark” to include a trademark applied for with CIPO. This means that a trademark application made to CIPO before June 1, 2025 would not need to meet all of the requirements of Bill 96. Note that recent news erroneously suggests that the CIPO backlog remains an issue for stakeholders, which is not the case because this matter has been addressed in Québec’s draft regulations.

Nevertheless, a number of Canadian and U.S. stakeholders have expressed concerns that Québec’s language requirements will limit their ability to maintain a business presence in the province, as well as in Canada more generally, given the costs associated with translating products and packaging. For instance, the [REDACTED] maintains that the new requirements would require changes to manufacturing supply lines, such as for inscriptions engraved or inlaid on a product, including in the auto, aerospace,

construction, and home appliance sectors. The [REDACTED] has also led a coordinated advocacy campaign against Bill 96, and has lobbied USTR to consider trade sanctions against Canada in response to Québec’s measures. [REDACTED]

[REDACTED] At this time, Québec’s timeline for finalizing its regulations in advance of the June 2025 entry into force of the measures is not clear. In the meantime, the Government of Canada encourages that all businesses with concerns about the new requirements to consult a licensed trademark agent or lawyer in Québec.

Key messages:

RESPONSIVE – If asked whether the U.S. has raised this matter with Canada, including the possibility of trade sanctions

Responsive – If asked about the consistency of Quebec’s measures with Canada’s WTO and CUSMA obligations

Responsive – If asked about trademarks

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